USDA FAS: EU fluid milk imports to climb 3.4% in 2027 as UK recovers

EU fluid milk imports will reach 750,000 tonnes in 2027, a 3.4% increase from low levels in 2026, as UK milk production recovers and more raw milk flows into Irish processing plants. That forecast comes from the US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).

The number matters because the trade is narrow. More than 98% of the EU's fluid milk imports come from the UK — specifically Northern Ireland — and that milk moves across the border for processing in Ireland. When UK output swings, EU import volumes swing with it.

Why 2026 imports are falling first

Before the 2027 rebound, FAS expects a sharp contraction. Imports in 2026 are projected to fall 12.3% from 2025. The cause sits upstream: drought cut UK milk deliveries, and the shortfall knocks directly into EU trade.

The recovery logic is simple. As UK production grows again, FAS expects dairies to redirect more milk toward processing in Ireland, lifting imports back toward 750,000 tonnes in 2027.

What happens to EU exports?

The export picture runs the other way. EU27 fluid milk exports are forecast to decline 2.7% in 2027 from 2026, dragged down by weakening demand from the bloc's main buyers. China and the UK will stay the top two destinations, but FAS flags a structural shift: other Asian countries are gaining importance.

The 2026 numbers show that shift already underway. Exports are expected to reach 1.13 million tonnes this year, up 2.4% from 2025 — growth trimmed by softening demand from leading importers.

January-to-July 2026 data sharpen the picture:

• Total EU27 fluid milk exports up 5.2% year on year
• Shipments to China down 1.3%
• Shipments to the UK down 5%
• South Korea up 1%
• Philippines up 40%
• Vietnam up 37%

Growth to other Asian destinations more than compensated for the losses in China and the UK.

What does this change for EU dairies?

The core constraint is price. FAS said the EU is the least price-competitive of the major milk exporters, and that cost gap prevents significant export gains. Even with Southeast Asian demand surging — the Philippines and Vietnam numbers are the clearest proof — European shippers can't fully monetize it against cheaper rivals.

So the practical read for processors and dairy desks: inbound volumes hinge on Northern Irish supply and Irish plant capacity, while outbound growth depends on whether EU milk can close the price gap with competitors in the markets that are actually expanding.

FAS's next reporting rounds, and the pace of the UK herd's post-drought recovery, will show whether the 750,000-tonne import forecast and the 2.7% export decline hold through 2027.