USDA Forecasts EU Cheese Imports Up 9.8% in 2027 as Exports Slip

EU27 cheese imports will rise 9.8% in 2027 while exports contract 2.4% to 1.44 million tonnes, according to the US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). Slower growth in EU cheese production drives the import forecast. Trade tensions and price pressure from the US drive the export decline.

Imports remain a niche trade. They account for less than 2% of domestic production and come mainly from the UK and Switzerland. Additional growth is forecast for US cheese, which enters under a 10,000-tonne tariff rate quota (TRQ).

How strong is import demand now?

FAS expects 2026 imports to grow 2.5%, a moderate pace. From January to July 2026, imports ran 7% above year-earlier levels, with UK deliveries up 5% and Switzerland up 4%. Higher hospitality demand and growing consumption of high-value cheeses fueled the gains.

Inflation could blunt that momentum. FAS estimates consumers may lose purchasing power and become more price sensitive, keeping 2026 import growth in check.

What drives the 2027 export contraction?

The EU remains the world's largest cheese exporter, ahead of the US and New Zealand, and ships about 13% of its production abroad. The top three destinations are the UK, the US and Japan.

In 2027, FAS forecasts exports down 2.4% to 1.44 million tonnes. International trade tensions and price pressure from competitors, mainly the US, weigh on the outlook. New trade opportunities under EU free trade agreements will take more time before any gains occur, the agency said.

The 2026 picture is stronger. FAS estimates exports up 3.9% to 1.48 million tonnes, as higher demand from the UK, Japan, Switzerland and Ukraine offsets declining sales to the US.

Where are exports moving?

From January to July 2026, exports rose 6% year on year. Shipments to the UK gained 3%, Japan jumped 29% and Switzerland added 2%. Demand also picked up in Ukraine and in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries, helped by declining EU cheese prices.

Two markets dragged. Exports to the US fell 1%, hit by tariffs and softer demand for EU high-value cheeses. Exports to China dropped 1% against the same period of 2025, extending the trend of limited Chinese purchases and the effects of an EU-China trade dispute on dairy products. FAS said continued declines in those markets and US price competition will limit 2026 export growth.

What about price positioning?

In September 2026, EU cheese prices were competitive globally, sitting below Oceania prices, while US prices remained lower still. More than 50% of EU exports go to four countries: the UK, the US, Japan and Switzerland. Exporters keep their focus there.

With geopolitical uncertainty growing, they are scouting other markets, including those opened by newly concluded FTAs. FAS is clear on timing: more time is required before any export gains are realised.

By Grace Kim, Agribusiness Wire