USDA Cuts U.S. Corn Crop 141 Million Bushels, Lifts Soybeans

USDA cut its 2026-2027 U.S. corn production forecast by 141 million bushels to 15.9 billion bushels in the Nov. 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, while raising the soybean crop 12 million bushels to 4.6 billion. The corn yield dropped 1.6 bushels per acre to 179.6 bpa; harvested area held at 88.5 million acres.

The smaller corn supply rippled straight through the balance sheet. USDA lowered feed and residual use 25 million bushels to 6 billion and cut exports 25 million bushels to 3.3 billion, citing sales and shipments to date. Ending stocks project at 1.8 billion bushels. The season-average farm price fell 10 cents to $4.60 per bushel — a direct margin squeeze for growers carrying today's input costs.

Soybeans moved the other way. Higher yields in Minnesota, Iowa, South Dakota and Nebraska drove the 12-million-bushel increase, partially offset by lower production in Illinois, Kansas, Missouri and Arkansas. USDA raised soybean exports 25 million bushels on larger supplies and the early-season export pace. Seed use ticked up; crush held steady. Ending stocks fell 15 million bushels to 300 million — the tightest headline number in this report.

What does this change for prices?

The season-average soybean price gained 10 cents to $12.10 per bushel. Soybean meal held at $340 per short ton; soybean oil slipped 2 cents to 68 cents per pound.

Wheat told a split story. USDA kept total U.S. exports at 750 million bushels but reshuffled them by class. White wheat exports rose on strong sales and shipments, backed by competitive prices in Asian markets. Hard red winter exports declined amid weak sales — projected to be the second lowest on record. Domestic use fell 3 million bushels on lower food use; NASS's Flour Milling Products report showed wheat ground for flour down 2% year over year in the July-September quarter. Ending stocks rose 3 million bushels to 743 million, still 19% below last year. The farm price dropped 10 cents to $6.20.

Cotton contracted across the board. Production fell 267,000 bales to 13.18 million, with the Southwest accounting for 250,000 bales of the cut and the national yield down 2% to 775 pounds per harvested acre. Mill use through September trailed last year, pulling consumption down 100,000 bales to 1.4 million. Ending stocks declined 100,000 bales to 3.7 million, cutting the stocks-to-use ratio from 27.5% to 27%. Upland cotton's farm price lost a penny, to 76 cents per pound.

How did global numbers shift?

Global wheat supplies climbed 6.4 million metric tons to 1.1104 billion, with Argentina up 1.5 million to 23 million and Australia up 1.5 million to 32.5 million as both entered harvest in favorable conditions. Consumption rose 1.7 million tons to 829.6 million on higher feed use in Australia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine. World trade slipped 300,000 tons to 208.7 million: Russia's exports fell 1 million to 39 million and Ukraine's fell 1 million to 11.5 million, offsetting gains from Australia and Argentina. USDA cited continued Black Sea disruptions that kept shipments below long-term averages despite alternative ports and transport. Global wheat ending stocks rose 4.8 million tons to 280.8 million.

Coarse grain production projects at 1.589 billion metric tons. Argentina's corn rose 2 million to 57 million tons on fast planting and expanded acreage; Brazil gained 2 million to 141 million on larger first-crop area, plus a 1.5-million-ton sorghum bump to 8 million. Global coarse grain trade rose 1.5 million tons to 255.4 million, though corn trade declined as lower shipments from Ukraine, the U.S. and India outpaced Argentina's gain. Coarse grain use fell to 1.613 billion tons; ending stocks rose 2.9 million to 316.2 million, mostly on corn inventories in Ukraine and China.

Rice supplies rose 700,000 tons to 738 million on higher beginning stocks in Nigeria, Bangladesh and Thailand plus gains in Argentina and Australia. Consumption fell 600,000 tons to 538.2 million; trade dropped 1.1 million to 60.2 million on reduced Indian exports; ending stocks rose 1.3 million to 199.8 million.

Global oilseed production slipped 300,000 tons to 721.9 million. Soybean output fell 200,000 tons to 442.5 million on declines in Ukraine, South Africa, the EU and Mexico. Crush and import demand rose — Algeria, Colombia, Thailand, Japan — and export forecasts climbed for the U.S. and Argentina. Global soybean ending stocks tightened 800,000 tons to 123.5 million, largely on lower U.S. and Argentine inventories. Traders will watch whether South American harvest weather and Black Sea logistics confirm these numbers in the December report.