USDA trims corn to 15.9 billion bushels, lifts soybeans to record

USDA cut its corn production forecast to 15.9 billion bushels on Tuesday, down 100 million bushels from October but still the second-largest harvest on record.

The November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report lowered the average corn yield to 179.6 bushels per acre — 1.6 bushels below the October estimate and 6.9 bushels below the 2025 figure. The Agriculture Department released the numbers Tuesday alongside its usual briefing for analysts and reporters.

How big is the crop, really?

Anthony Prillaman, associate deputy administrator of the National Agricultural Statistics Service, put the margin in perspective at the briefing: "Even the low end of the range at 15.5 billion bushels would exceed every other previous U.S. crop except the 2025 record-high production of 17 billion bushels."

That caveat matters. A trimmed forecast is still a near-record supply, and buyers will price it accordingly.

The state-level picture split sharply. Minnesota, South Dakota, Wisconsin, South Carolina, Washington and Pennsylvania posted the largest production increases in November compared with October. Illinois, Nebraska and Indiana saw the largest decreases.

Corn at a glance:

• Production: 15.9 billion bushels, down from 16 billion in October
• Yield: 179.6 bushels per acre, down 1.6 from October
• Exports, 2026-27: 3.275 billion bushels, down 25 million from the prior forecast

Takeaway: a smaller number on paper, but ample corn by any historical measure.

What moved the other crops?

Soybeans moved the other way. USDA raised its soybean production forecast by less than 1% to a record 4.57 billion bushels, with average yields projected at 53.3 bushels per acre. Soybean exports for the marketing year rose 25 million bushels from October to 1.72 billion.

Cotton fell the other direction: 13.2 million 480-pound bales, a 2% drop from October and 5% below 2025.

Wheat held steady at 1.53 billion bushels, unchanged from October but down 23% from 2025. Average yields sit at 48.1 bushels per acre, against 53.3 last year.

Rice posted the sharpest historical marker. Production slipped slightly to 157.6 million hundredweight — the smallest U.S. rice crop in 33 years and roughly 24% below 2025. Average yields are projected at 7,664 pounds per acre, down just 4 pounds from October, which points to fewer harvested acres rather than weaker fields.

Takeaway: one record crop, one 33-year low, and wheat down almost a quarter year over year.

What does this mean for markets?

These are forecasts, not harvested results. WASDE figures rest on survey methodology and reporting windows that USDA revises as harvest data replaces field observations, and the November numbers already shifted measurably from October.

The export lines cut both ways for farm margins. Corn shipments for 2026-27 dropped 25 million bushels, a drag on basis in exporting regions, while soybean exports gained the same amount.

The next WASDE release will show whether the corn trim was a one-month adjustment or the start of a tighter balance sheet.