China still needs to purchase roughly 10 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans — a commitment worth an estimated $5 billion to $6 billion — according to Dan Basse, president of AgResource Company, who says those outstanding sales represent both the bull case and the unfinished business for American agriculture.

Basse, speaking as a market analyst, said China's purchases of U.S. agricultural goods have been supportive of prices so far. But he stopped short of calling the demand story complete.

"China still has about 10 million metric tons beans, which we would estimate somewhere in the vicinity of $5 or $6 billion," Basse said.

The scale of that remaining business matters for farm margins. At current values, 10 million metric tons of undelivered Chinese soybean demand translates into a multi-billion-dollar revenue stream still to work its way through the U.S. balance sheet. For growers weighing input costs against basis levels at Midwest elevators, the pace at which Beijing executes those purchases will shape both cash prices and the carry in the futures market.

Basse's framing points to a market that has already priced in part of the Chinese buying but has not yet seen the full volume hit shipped or booked positions. That distinction matters. Pledges and routine daily export sales announcements are not the same as vessel loadings, and the gap between reported sales and actual deliveries is where basis and futures spreads get decided.

For U.S. soybean producers, the analyst's signal is straightforward: Chinese demand remains the dominant variable in the price outlook. The supportive tone Basse describes reflects purchases already on the books, while the 10 million metric tons he cites represents demand still ahead — demand that, if delivered, would tighten available supplies and lend further strength to prices.

The dollar figures underscore the stakes. A $5 billion to $6 billion block of outstanding soybean business ranks among the largest single-country commitments in the U.S. agricultural export portfolio. Whether China completes those purchases on schedule will influence exporter competition with Brazil, the direction of U.S. basis, and ultimately the revenue side of growers' 2024 ledgers.

Basse's assessment carries weight with the farm sector. AgResource Company, the Chicago-based firm he leads, is a regular source of supply-and-demand analysis for grain handlers, lenders, and producers, and his read on Chinese buying behavior feeds directly into marketing decisions across the Corn Belt.

His message balances the two halves of the current market picture. On one side, the purchases to date justify a bullish lean — Beijing has been a willing buyer, and prices have responded. On the other, the outstanding 10 million metric tons serve as a reminder that the demand story is still being written, and that analysts will be watching weekly export sales data and shipment reports to confirm the pace.

The takeaway for the trade: treat the existing Chinese buying as fact, and the remaining tonnage as the forecast. Until those beans are booked and loaded, the $5 billion to $6 billion question hangs over the market, and with it the direction of soybean prices heading into the next reporting window.