China must spend about $1.2 billion a week on U.S. farm goods for the final 13 weeks of this year to meet its remaining 2026 commitments, according to Dan Basse, president of Chicago-based AgResource Co.

The estimate covers roughly $10 billion still owed out of $14 billion in prorated 2026 agricultural purchases that the Trump administration said China agreed to in May, plus about 10 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans left from the 25 million MT annual pledge that runs through 2028.

"That's a significant amount of ag demand," Basse says in the latest Agri-Pulse Newsmakers, set to run Friday. "Let's hope it includes some sorghum, some corn, and maybe even some wheat. That would be good news for American farmers."

Conflicting accounts on pace

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News on Wednesday that China has been "very good" so far this year in meeting its soybean purchase pledge, though it is a "little behind schedule" on the separate agreement covering total farm purchases. China agreed in May to buy $17 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products this year on a prorated basis — about $14 billion — and then $17 billion annually for the remainder of Trump's term.

Sen. John Hoeven, R-N.D., a Senate Ag Committee member who chairs the Appropriations Committee's agriculture subcommittee, told Newsmakers host Tammi Arender he expects Trump and his top trade negotiators to press China on the $17 billion commitment this week.

"I'm optimistic they'll not only get a good response from that, but I think they're going to get more," Hoeven said. "I really do."

The arithmetic behind the pledge

Basse figures China has already spent between $3.5 billion and $4 billion on U.S. forest products, dairy and nuts against the $17 billion commitment. That leaves roughly $10 billion to be bought through Dec. 31. At current prices, 10 million MT of soybeans at the U.S. Gulf costs about $550 million, which anchors his $1.2 billion weekly spending estimate.

On soybeans, Basse expects China to live up to its pledge of buying at least 25 million MT this year. His reading is that China must secure the beans by Dec. 31 but can ship them in the 2026-27 crop year ending in August.

The timing question remains unsettled in ag markets. Confusion persists over whether the commitments run on a calendar year or a U.S. marketing year, which spans Sept. 1 through Aug. 31.

"The best we're able to ascertain from talking to various people about this, is that the commitments they were talking about were on a marketing year basis," Jim Sutter, CEO of the U.S. Soybean Export Council, told Agri-Pulse.

The initial 12 million MT purchase, already fulfilled, covered 2025-crop soybeans, Sutter said. The 25 million MT applies to the 2026 crop, with the same arrangement in each of the next two years. Technically, that would give China until Aug. 31, 2027, to complete 2026-crop purchases.

Historically, Chinese importers buy U.S. soy from October through February or March. Sutter expects any 25-million-ton program to move as October-through-January or February shipments, because that is the natural U.S. shipping window to China — though he noted some other economists read the timeline differently.

How firmly Beijing's state importers book Gulf soybeans over the next two quarters will test whether the May framework translates into actual export demand for U.S. row-crop growers.