Blue Dog Coalition Set to More Than Double After 22 PAC-Backed Wins

At least 22 Democrats backed by the Blue Dog Caucus's PAC won their races this year, putting the coalition of moderates historically tied to rural districts on track to more than double its membership in the next Congress.

Eight incumbent Blue Dogs held their seats: Adam Gray, Jim Costa and Lou Correa of California, Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez of Texas, Josh Gottheimer of New Jersey, Sanford Bishop of Georgia and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington. Another 14 PAC-backed newcomers won House seats, including Rebecca Cooke of Wisconsin, Jamie Ager of North Carolina, Sam Forstag of Montana and Bobby Pulido of Texas.

The numbers mark a sharp reversal for a group that peaked at 54 members in 2009 and counts just 10 in the current Congress.

What happened in North Carolina?

Democratic Rep. Don Davis, a House Agriculture Committee member, won reelection with 50.1% of the vote against 46.8% for Republican Laurie Buckhout, a retired Army colonel, the Associated Press projected Thursday. Davis beat the same rival by a narrower margin in 2024, 49.5% to 47.8%.

Redistricting had made Davis one of the most vulnerable House Democrats of the cycle. His chief of staff, Hannah Spengler, said the GOP spent the most money ever deployed against a sitting member of Congress in the northeastern North Carolina district. A coalition of Republicans, Democrats and independents carried him through.

Which ag panel races remain uncalled?

Fellow North Carolina Republican Rep. David Rouzer, who chairs the Transportation Committee's highways and transit panel and serves as vice chair of the Ag Committee's general farm commodities subcommittee, has declared victory over Democrat Kimberly Hardy, a social worker and professor. State results put Rouzer ahead by less than a percentage point with all votes counted; the AP has not called the race.

House Rules Committee Chair Virginia Foxx, R-N.C., sits in a dead heat with Democrat Chuck Hubbard, a retired newspaper reporter, at 48.7% per AP.

NRCC Chair Rep. Richard Hudson narrowly lost to Democrat Richard Ojeda. "Voters didn't just hand the Democrats a gavel, they forcefully handed them two gavels," said Scott Segal, partner and co-head of Bracewell Policy Resolution Group.

Is the Mississippi Senate race decided?

No. Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, a former Mississippi agriculture commissioner who sits on the Agriculture Committee, the Appropriations ag panel and the Energy Committee, trails Democrat Scott Colom 48.9% to 49% as of Thursday evening.

"We believe thousands of votes remain to be counted from dozens of Republican counties, and we are confident those votes will reinforce her path to victory," her campaign said. Colom's campaign manager countered Thursday that Colom's lead had grown to roughly 1,100 votes. Colom, a prosecutor, would become Mississippi's first Black senator since Reconstruction; Hyde-Smith became the state's first woman senator in 2018.

Mississippi law allows neither recounts nor runoffs in Senate races. The state has until Nov. 10 to process several thousand uncounted provisional ballots, AP reports.

Who won the agriculture commissioner races?

Democrats flipped two Republican-held offices even as the GOP won five of seven statewide ag races on the ballot. In Texas, Clayton Tucker, secretary of the Texas Farmers Union, beat Republican Nate Sheets. In Georgia, Katherine Juhan-Arnold unseated incumbent Commissioner Tyler Harper. Republicans Wilton Simpson (Florida), Mike Naig (Iowa) and Doug Goehring (North Dakota) won reelection; Corey Hill and Cody Simpson took open seats in Alabama and South Carolina.

How much did tariffs shape the Senate map?

Seven states facing above-average tariff costs — Georgia, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Rhode Island, South Carolina and Texas — elected Democrats to the Senate, a Nov. 5 National Taxpayers Union blog post says. Michigan paid the most, $27 billion, or $6,485 per household through September; Georgia followed at $24 billion, or $5,525 per household. South Carolina paid $11 billion since 2025, Texas $45 billion.

"The time has come for Congress to reassert its Article I, Section 8 constitutional authority. No more tariffs without a vote of Congress," NTU said.

Randy Russell, CEO of The Russell Group, expects more oversight ahead: "You'll see much more active oversight of agencies like USDA and FDA. … That leads to more accountability. It needs to be done on the record, and I think ultimately leads to probably better decisions."