Farm States Hand Democrats Congress, Rerouting Farm Bill and Trade

Democrats will control both chambers of Congress after farm-state voters flipped at least four Senate seats Tuesday, putting a stalled farm bill, tariff authority and $8 billion in diesel aid at the center of Washington's agenda.

Congress has not passed a five-year farm bill since 2018, and the last extension of that law expired Sept. 30. The 2018 law's successor now falls to a Congress where Iowa delivered the decisive Senate flip: Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek beat GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson for the seat held by retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst. Democrats needed a net gain of four seats against the Republican 53-47 majority. They got it.

What changed on election night?

The surprises built through the evening. Virginia called Sen. Mark Warner minutes after polls closed at 7 p.m.

• North Carolina: former Gov. Roy Cooper beat Michael Whatley, President Donald Trump's pick and former RNC chairman, flipping retiring GOP Sen. Thom Tillis's seat — the first Democratic Senate win there since 2008.
• Kansas: United Methodist pastor Adam Hamilton defeated Sen. Roger Marshall, ending a 94-year Republican hold on the seat.
• Texas: state Rep. James Talarico defeated Attorney General Ken Paxton; Gina Hinojosa unseated Gov. Greg Abbott, the first Democratic governor there in 35 years.
• Ohio: former Sen. Sherrod Brown beat Sen. Jon Husted.
• South Carolina: Democrat Annie Andrews defeated Sen. Darline Graham.
• Maine: Republican Sen. Susan Collins conceded to Democrat Troy Jackson just after midnight, ending a 30-year career. "I called Troy Jackson tonight to congratulate him," Collins said in a statement.

Republicans held ground elsewhere. Florida Sen. Ashley Moody beat democratic socialist Angie Nixon, 51% to 48%. Andy Barr won Kentucky's Senate seat. In Ohio, Republican Vivek Ramaswamy lost the governor's race to Democrat Amy Acton and called it a "tough and challenging" night for his party.

What happened in the House?

Network projections showed Democrats winning more than 245 seats, well beyond the 218 needed — their largest majority in nearly two decades. By early Wednesday, Democrats had flipped 20 House seats and Republicans none, according to NBC News projections.

North Carolina's 11th District flipped behind Jamie Ager, a fourth-generation farmer. Republican Rep. Chuck Edwards dropped his reelection bid in August, leaving replacement Jennifer Balkcom fewer than 90 days to campaign. In Wisconsin's 3rd District, Democrat Rebecca Cooke was projected to defeat Rep. Derrick Van Orden, a House Agriculture Committee member.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York is in line to become the nation's first Black speaker. He posted on X: "Victory for America!"

What happens to the farm bill?

In April, the House passed Chairman Glenn "GT" Thompson's bill 224-200, the first farm bill to clear the House floor since 2018. In September, the Senate Agriculture Committee advanced Chairman John Boozman's version 12-11 on party lines. The American Farm Bureau Federation backed Boozman's bill, which authorizes year-round E15 sales and includes measures to ease swings in input costs. The main sticking point remains the split of SNAP costs between the federal government and states.

Republican majorities hold power until January, and Boozman has pushed to finish. "We'll be talking with members of our committee and conferencing this thing," he told an Arkansas Farm Bureau podcast before the election. Producers now face a central question: will the outgoing Congress pass a bill in the weeks ahead, or will Democrats start over in the new year?

Both agriculture committees get new top Democrats. Sen. Amy Klobuchar won Minnesota's governor's race and leaves the Senate; Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet, who lost his own gubernatorial primary, is likely next in line. New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker said he would be "excited and privileged" to chair the committee. On the House side, Angie Craig of Minnesota leaves after losing a Senate primary. Democrats pick committee leaders early next year and do not rely strictly on seniority. At least nine House and five Senate Agriculture Committee members leave at the end of this Congress.

What about input costs and trade?

Diesel hit a record national average of $5.85 a gallon in September, about 60% higher than before the war with Iran began in late February. Fertilizer prices spiked after the Strait of Hormuz closed. In an American Farm Bureau Federation survey of 5,700 farmers, about 70% said they could not afford all the fertilizer they needed. The administration promised $8 billion in payments to commodity farmers for diesel costs and announced investments in meat processing and fertilizer production.

Trade is the next question. The Trump administration pursued an aggressive tariff strategy, and one agriculture policy analyst said a key question is whether the new Congress tries to take back control over tariff and trade authority. Farm labor could return too: House Republicans' bill on farm labor rules stalled, and Democrats may restart the discussion.

The economy topped voter concerns: 39% in the NBC News Exit Poll called it the most important issue, with most voters citing inflation and the cost of gas, food and utilities.

Can Trump's veto hold?

Trump posted an image on Truth Social of a red cap reading "VETO." An override needs two-thirds in each chamber: 67 Senate votes and 290 House votes. Democrats are expected to hold 53 to 55 Senate seats, so an override would require 12 to 14 Republican senators. In the House, Democrats would need no more than 45 Republicans, and fewer as their count rises. Trump told The New York Times he would accept the results. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said "relief is on the way." House Speaker Mike Johnson said he was "disappointed" but Republicans "will not be deterred by the outcome of one election."

Which races remain undecided?

Michigan's race between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers stayed too close to call early Wednesday, with El-Sayed narrowly ahead. In Alaska, early returns showed Democrat Mary Peltola ahead of Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan.

The Justice Department has sued to stop Alaska from certifying a Peltola win, citing a second candidate named Dan Sullivan on the ballot — Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a retired teacher from Petersburg who ran without a party label. The New York Times reported Democratic campaigners recruited him to pull votes away from the senator, relying largely on a fired former Peltola campaign manager. Peltola, the Alaska Democratic Party and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee denied involvement; state and federal authorities are investigating. The second Sullivan drew about 1.5% of early votes. Trump told the Times he would not challenge the result. Tens of thousands of ballots remain, with a final result likely mid-November after ranked-choice tabulation.

Those races set the majority's size, not its owner — and the farm bill's fate likely turns on whether the current Congress acts before January or Democrats rewrite it next year.