The USDA now projects the 2026 upland cotton crop at 13.059 million bales, an increase of 250,000 bales from its September estimate but a drop of 433,000 bales from the 2025 crop. The revision follows changes in expected yields, with the 2026 upland cotton yield forecast at 781 pounds per acre. In the same set of estimates, USDA lowered its outlook for this year's rice crop.

What does the new cotton number mean?

The 250,000-bale increase from September signals that USDA survey data now support a slightly larger supply than the previous forecast window indicated. But the year-over-year comparison runs the other way: at 13.059 million bales, the 2026 crop remains 433,000 bales smaller than 2025's harvest. USDA attributes both movements to yield differences rather than changes in harvested area.

The 781-pound-per-acre yield figure is the operative driver. When monthly estimates move on yield rather than acreage, the revision reflects in-season condition data and field surveys gathered during a specific reporting window. Those figures remain estimates until ginning data and classing office results confirm actual production — a distinction growers and merchandisers track closely, since forecast revisions can shift basis well before a single module reaches the gin.

For cotton producers, the direction of supply matters for marketing. A month-over-month increase of 250,000 bales, even within a smaller overall crop, can weigh on futures and local basis. A year-over-year decline of 433,000 bales tightens available supply relative to 2025, a factor exporters and domestic mills will price against current demand.

Rice moves the other way

While upland cotton gained, USDA cut its rice estimate in the same report. The agency's October numbers, released in its regular crop production series, place the rice outlook below the prior forecast. The reduction underscores that this month's revisions are not a uniform upgrade of fall crops — they pull supply expectations in opposite directions for two major commodities, which matters for growers running diversified cotton-and-rice rotations in states such as Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri and Texas.

How solid are these estimates?

Condition reports and monthly production forecasts are survey-based projections, not harvested results. USDA's cotton and rice numbers will continue to move as the agency incorporates objective yield measurements, ginning reports and processor data in coming months. The 13.059-million-bale cotton figure and the reduced rice projection therefore represent the current midpoint of expectation, not a final tally.

Growers making pricing decisions on the 2026 crop should treat the yield-driven revision — 781 pounds per acre, up from September's implied level but below 2025 — as the number to watch, since any further yield adjustment would flow directly into the bale total and, in turn, into the supply side of the price equation. Subsequent USDA reports will show whether the October gain holds once actual harvest data replace survey projections.