USDA Pegs 2026 Sunflower Crop at 2.3 Billion Pounds, Down 1%

USDA's first production estimate for the 2026 sunflower crop, released in October, puts output at 2.3 billion pounds — down 1% from the revised 2025 total of 2.34 billion pounds.

Within that total, oil-type sunflower production rose 11.4 million pounds from last year and non-oil production gained 2.5 million pounds. More acres could not offset weaker yields.

Growers planted 1.35 million acres, up less than 1% from the June estimate and up 5% year over year. Harvested area is expected at 1.31 million acres, up 1% from June and up 4% from 2025.

How far do yields fall?

The October yield forecast sits at 1,761 pounds per acre. That is 100 pounds below last year's average, but if realized it would still rank as the fourth highest on record for the U.S.

Seven states face lower yields: California, Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota. Texas is the only state expected to beat last year's yield.

North Dakota, the leading producer this year, is projected at 1.06 billion pounds, down 3% from 2025. Its average yield forecast of 1,740 pounds per acre drops 217 pounds from a year ago.

South Dakota's forecast of 1,959 pounds per acre sits 16 pounds below last year's record high.

USDA's next yield and production estimates arrive in early January.

What do stocks show?

USDA's Sept. 1 old-crop stocks report pegs sunflower seed in all positions at 302.7 million pounds, up 45% from a year ago. On-farm stocks total 26.4 million pounds; off-farm stocks hold 276.4 million pounds.

The breakdown:

• Oil-type seed: 263.4 million pounds — 20.9 million on farm, 242.5 million off farm
• Non-oil seed: 39.3 million pounds — 5.4 million on farm, 33.9 million off farm

Oil-type stocks ran 54% above last year, in line with trade expectations. Non-oil stocks gained 2% and matched industry estimates.

What are crushers offering for 2027?

As of mid-October, crushers offered 2027 new-crop cash high-oleic contracts at roughly $25.50 per cwt., with act-of-God (AOG) contracts at $25.

Oil premiums add to those prices. Sunflower is the only oilseed paying premiums for oil content above 40%. Crush plants apply a 2% price premium for each 1% of oil above that threshold.

At 45% oil content, a contract earns a gross return 10% higher per cwt. The $25 AOG contract climbs to $27.50; the $25.50 cash contract rises to $28.05.

Price tracking tools are available at sunflowernsa.com and on X @NatlSunflower.

The January estimates will show whether the crop holds at 2.3 billion pounds or slips further.