U.S. agricultural exports to China collapsed to $8.4 billion last year, down from a record $41 billion in 2022, as President Donald Trump prepares to host Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington this week.

The summit marks the third Trump-Xi meeting in less than a year. Growers, cooperatives and input makers are pressing for enforceable commitments and lower tariffs rather than another round of aspirational headlines.

How far has the China market fallen?

China took 21% of all U.S. ag exports in 2022. By 2024 that share had slipped to roughly 15%, or about $27 billion. Last year China dropped out of the U.S.'s top five markets after months-long boycotts of U.S. soybeans and a pivot toward Brazilian and Argentine suppliers. Total bilateral goods trade between the two countries was $494.6 billion last year, down 25% from 2024, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.

Is the October 2025 deal holding?

The clearest positive since the last Trump-Xi meetings is China's resumption of U.S. soybean purchases following an October 2025 agreement. China agreed to buy an initial 12 million metric tons and to purchase at least 25 MMT annually from 2026 through 2028. Analysts say China is now roughly halfway toward meeting this year's goal.

"I am looking mainly for a continuation of the building and the improvement of relations between the two biggest economies in the world," said Jim Sutter, chief executive officer of the U.S. Soybean Export Council.

China's tariff on U.S. soybeans sits at roughly 13%. Sutter said exporters want that number reduced. "We hear from the private buyers in China that they are anxious for that to happen, and I know our exporters are anxious for that to happen."

American Soybean Association President Scott Metzger urged Trump in a letter last week to push Beijing to "fulfill its annual purchase commitments," drop tariffs that disadvantage U.S. beans against Brazilian competition, and lock in a long-term framework.

What other commodities are at stake?

• Sorghum: Historically close to 80% of U.S. sorghum exports moved to China. National Sorghum Producers Chair Amy France said China recently bought "significant volumes" of Brazilian sorghum. "We cannot afford to lose market share that may be extremely difficult to win back. Time is of the essence," France said.
• Wheat: National Association of Wheat Growers CEO Sam Kieffer said he hopes the meeting leads to "real, durable market opportunities for U.S. farmers."
• Beef: USDA set the 2026 U.S. quota at 164,000 metric tons, with an out-of-quota tariff of 55% and a country-wide cap near 2.8 MMT. "Retaining and expanding market access for American beef in China is imperative," said Jenna Stanton of the U.S. Cattlemen's Association.
• Ethanol and DDGs: Roughly 40% of America's annual corn crop goes to fuel. Renewable Fuels Association CEO Geoff Cooper said China was once a top ethanol market and the leading importer of U.S. distillers dried grains, but exports have collapsed to near zero.
• Dairy: International Dairy Foods Association's Becky Rasdall Vargas urged both sides to keep a pause on elevated tariffs and Section 301 port fees.

What is the "30 by 30" board of trade?

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has proposed a bilateral board of trade to negotiate lower tariffs on nonsensitive products worth up to $30 billion in import value. Bessent told CNBC in May the plan would "start with $30 billion by $30 billion that both sides can designate." Earlier this week Bessent stood alongside U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to report progress. "We just had a very successful engagement with the Chinese on trade and AI, completing where we left off in Beijing," Bessent said.

What is the political backdrop?

Trump faces the summit weeks before the Nov. 3 congressional elections. Diesel hit an all-time high of $6.53 a gallon Tuesday, pressuring margins as corn and soybean harvests begin. A survey of 1,200 corn and soybean farmers released Tuesday by ASA and the National Corn Growers Association found 46% more worried about their farm's finances than a year ago.

Iowa Corn Growers Association President Steve Kuiper summed up grower expectations: farmers want "something measurable, something that has teeth in it, so we have the confidence in knowing what our potential sales are to China."

Democrats are skeptical. Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) said Trump "is not very good at making deals with the PRC that they actually follow through on." Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) said Trump is "more focused on his election than he is about relieving the financial burden he has put upon farmers."

Aemetis CEO Eric McAfee, whose renewable fuels company operates in California and India, framed the summit's purpose in personal terms: "Xi and Trump need to be able to call each other privately and say: 'I'm really pissed off at you.'" The next test will be China's November soybean buying pace and any joint statement on tariff cuts flowing from the new board of trade.