December corn dropped roughly 11 cents in overnight trading to about $5.17 per bushel on Friday, Sept. 25, touching its lowest intraday level since Aug. 25 after Thursday's meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping produced no announcement of major new U.S. agricultural purchases.

November soybeans fell more than 16 cents toward $13 per bushel, and December Chicago SRW wheat lost more than 18 cents. December corn has now retreated more than 32 cents, or about 6%, from a three-year high set Sept. 2. The selloff shows how quickly trade expectations have become a central variable for farm income, marketing decisions and harvest cash flow.

Did the Trump-Xi meeting deliver what grain markets expected?

The talks delivered one concrete item: the United States and China agreed to extend their existing trade truce for another two months, through January. They did not produce announcements of additional purchases of U.S. corn, soybeans or wheat.

Uncertainty also remains around agricultural commitments previously discussed between Washington and Beijing. Grain traders have shifted their focus from anticipated trade deals to actual sales and shipments on the books.

How weak are current U.S. export sales?

USDA export data added pressure to the futures complex. Net U.S. corn sales for the 2026-27 marketing year totaled 838,300 metric tons in the week ended Sept. 17, down 18% from the prior week. Marketing-year commitments reached 718 million bushels, 29% below the comparable year-earlier level.

Soybean sales were softer still. Weekly net sales came in at 582,400 metric tons, down 66% week over week, though China remained the largest buyer at 311,800 metric tons. USDA separately confirmed a private sale of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans to China during the same reporting window.

What is at stake as harvest approaches?

China still anchors the soybean outlook. Outstanding U.S. soybean sales to China for 2026-27 stood at 10.17 million metric tons as of Sept. 17, equal to roughly 373.6 million bushels. That figure represents about 41% of the 25-million-metric-ton annual purchase target cited by the White House.

Traders increasingly distinguish between commitments and physical shipments as a potentially large U.S. crop moves into the supply chain. Processors, elevators and cooperatives are adjusting harvest bids in real time. For producers, the immediate calculus now blends yield results, storage capacity, input costs and crop insurance considerations with export demand.

Weather may offer some regional support to basis. Rain across parts of the western Corn Belt is expected to delay fieldwork from the Dakotas through Nebraska, Kansas and western Iowa, while much of the eastern Corn Belt stays comparatively dry. Localized slowdowns could tighten nearby supply at elevators and lift basis in affected states, even as futures slide.

China's next purchase announcements and the next round of USDA weekly export sales, covering the week ending Sept. 24, will set the near-term direction. Whether the current price weakness fades or extends deeper into harvest depends on whether the 41% of the annual soybean target already on the books converts into physical shipments before new-crop supplies pressure cash markets further.