China Ties $17 Billion US Farm Buying Spree to Tariff-Cut Deal

China bought only $7.2 billion in non-soybean US farm goods between January and September — the lowest for that period since 2019 — and Beijing now says the pace will not pick up until Washington implements a reciprocal tariff-cutting deal worth $60 billion in total.

The commerce ministry in Beijing set that condition on Thursday, November 5. Spokesperson Huang Ling framed the stalled purchases as a policy choice, not a market one.

"China has consistently been open to expanding purchases of agricultural products from the US, but only on the condition that the two sides implement their agreed '$30 billion-for-$30 billion' reciprocal tariff-reduction arrangement," Huang said.

China also wants the United States to reduce non-tariff barriers and expand market access, Huang added.

Where the numbers stand

The arithmetic traces back to the September summit between Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump in Washington. The two sides proposed reciprocal tariff cuts totaling $60 billion — roughly $30 billion from each side — including about $17 billion in US farm goods that China imported in 2024. The plan has not been finalized.

The White House said in May that Beijing had agreed to buy $17 billion of US agricultural goods annually starting in 2026, with this year's target prorated. Those purchases sit on top of a separate commitment, made in October last year, to buy US soybeans.

The scoreboard so far is split:

• Soybeans: China is on track to meet its purchase target, according to a Reuters analysis.
• Everything else: meat, corn and other products totaled $7.2 billion through September — a nine-month figure running well short of the annual pace the $17 billion deal implies.

What does the timeline uncertainty change for growers?

A great deal, and the answer is unfavorable for now. The White House has not said whether the clock on the $17 billion non-soy commitment started with its May announcement or will start only once China's proposed tariff cuts are finalized. Until that ambiguity clears, US exporters cannot forecast demand with confidence, and grain and meat basis reflects that hesitation.

Traders have told Reuters that lower tariffs are a prerequisite for making large-scale purchases commercially viable. In other words, even a signed purchase commitment does not translate into orders at current duty levels, because Chinese importers cannot clear the spread between US offer prices and competing origins plus the tariff.

The slow buying pace has fueled doubts that imports will rise sharply this year. That adds pressure on US farmers already grappling with high fuel costs, which tighten margins at exactly the moment export demand has softened.

Next checkpoint before year-end

The two governments have established an agricultural working group, and it is expected to meet before the end of the year. That meeting is the nearest calendar event where the tariff-cut timetable and the purchase-start date could be pinned down.

The White House could not be reached for comment outside working hours.

For US growers, the practical question is whether the working-group session converts a conditional pledge into a dated schedule. Until Beijing's $30-billion-for-$30-billion arrangement moves from proposal to implementation, the $17 billion annual target remains a ceiling defined by tariff math rather than a floor under export volumes.