Soybeans Post Worst Month of 2026: What November's USDA Reports Could Do

Soybean futures dropped almost 6% in October — the market's worst month of 2026 — and the USDA's Nov. 9 Crop Production and Supply and Demand reports may decide whether November brings relief or more downside.

The fundamental picture doesn't favor the bulls. USDA already pegs the U.S. average soybean yield at a record 53.1 bushels per acre, and several analysts expect the department to nudge that number higher on Nov. 9. In October, USDA estimated production at 4.56 billion bushels, up 7% from 2025 and roughly 100 million bushels above the current record set in 2021.

A record crop isn't guaranteed. But with harvest mostly finished and anecdotal field reports running strong, it feels close to a lock.

What does Brazil's election change for U.S. growers?

Plenty. The October sell-off gained momentum after Brazil's runoff, where President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva defeated Flávio Bolsonaro. The result sent Brazil's currency, the real, down sharply against the dollar.

Lula's win "raises the prospect of cheaper Brazilian farm exports," said Wesley Davis, chief ag economist at Meridian Ag Advisors. "A weaker real lowers the dollar price of Brazilian soybeans, corn and beef that compete with U.S. exports. It also raises costs for Brazilian growers, who import more than 80% of their fertilizer and agrichemicals."

Brazil hardly needs a currency edge. The country already supplied about 80% of China's soybean imports this year. Lula is believed to prioritize pragmatic trade engagement with Beijing, which could cement Brazil's position as China's top soybean supplier.

Weather is cooperating, too. Brazilian planting reached about 56% by the end of October, ahead of the 47% five-year average, according to consultant Safras & Mercado. Key growing regions have received ample rains, favoring early crop development.

Can demand outrun the supply surge?

U.S. growers still hold some cards. Record domestic crush demand and a sharp China-driven rebound in soybean exports suggest the October slump could run its course. Even after the sell-off, futures remain up more than 10% from year-ago levels and sit not far from the 2½-year highs above $13 touched in early September. Biofuels producers keep adding crush capacity, tightening the balance if production stays in check.

The catch: South American weather has so far defied predictions of El Niño-related disruptions. If that holds, another record Brazilian harvest is likely — and the supply overhang grows.

"I'm concerned that it's going to take a South American scare to turn this ship completely around," said John Zanker, senior analyst at Farmer's Keeper. "That's certainly possible, and perhaps more than usual, given the super El Niño. But at this point, things are off to a strong start south of the equator."

What happens next

The Nov. 9 USDA updates arrive first. Watch the yield revision, then Brazil's planting weather through December. "Demand remains very strong, and if production can be kept in check, we could see a healthy rally over the next couple of months," Zanker said — meaning growers watching for a postharvest rally should keep marketing plans flexible into winter.