Soybean Futures Slide as Lula Win Sinks Brazil's Real

Soybean futures fell in Chicago on Monday after Brazilian President Lula da Silva's surprise reelection sent Brazil's currency plunging against the dollar, making U.S. soybeans more expensive — and less competitive — for foreign buyers.

Why did prices drop?

The real's slide cut the cost of Brazilian soybeans in dollar terms. Traders expect two consequences, and neither favors the U.S. farmer. StoneX Group chief commodities economist Arlan Suderman said futures fell "on expectations that Brazil farmers would sell ahead of additional weakness and on expectations that we will lose export business as Brazilian soybeans become more competitive on the world market on the cheaper currency."

A stronger dollar works the same way across U.S. agriculture: when foreign currencies buy fewer dollars, every U.S. commodity costs importers more. That is a basis and margin problem for growers heading into harvest sales — though how much export share actually shifts depends on how long the currency move lasts, something no futures quote can promise.

The offset: a two-year export high

Monday brought one solid number in the other direction. USDA reported 91 million bushels of U.S. soybeans inspected for export shipment last week — the highest weekly total in two years, Suderman noted. China drove the buying of the oilseed used in products from salad dressing to jet fuel.

One strong inspection week is a condition report, not a trend. Whether demand holds against a cheaper Brazilian crop is the question the next several reporting windows must answer.

What does the election mean for agriculture's allies in Congress?

With a week until Election Day, the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter shifted 19 House races toward Democrats, including four GOP-held districts moving from "Toss Up" to "Lean Democrat." Analyst Erin Covey said the Republican path to keeping the House has "all but evaporated," adding: "The outstanding question is how large Democrats' majority will be in 2027."

One shifted race is North Carolina's 11th district, where Republican Rep. Chuck Edwards abandoned his reelection bid in August after the House Ethics Committee found he behaved inappropriately toward two female aides. The region — previously represented by Mark Meadows — now leans toward Democrat Jamie Ager, a fourth-generation farmer, over Republican state Rep. Jennifer Balkcom, a mortgage loan officer raised on her family's apple farm.

The Senate is less settled. Democrats need at least four seats to flip the chamber, and Sabato's Crystal Ball lists five toss-ups: Iowa, Kansas, Texas, Maine and Ohio.

Lawmakers move against Russian diesel imports

A bipartisan group — Reps. Don Bacon, R-Neb., Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa., and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, D-Wash. — introduced the Ronald Reagan Peace Through Strength Act of 2026 to block the Treasury Department from waiving the prohibition on Russian energy imports. The bill follows President Donald Trump's authorization of Russian diesel purchases earlier this month.

Bacon, who said the president is "wrong," argued Oct. 24 that Congress must "force the president to support freedom and oppose the war criminal. America must stand with the Free World." The bill also mandates U.S. intelligence support for Ukraine's defense and congressional notification if that support is interrupted — a provision prompted by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's report of temporary Starlink and Starshield disruptions.

Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed that Trump's approach is "certain to fail" and that the diesel deal "will have done little to bring down prices at the pump." For diesel-dependent row-crop operations, that skepticism matters more than the diplomatic framing.

Grocers reject AI-driven personalized pricing

The National Grocers Association opposes using consumer data — including through artificial intelligence — to charge individual shoppers higher prices. Its statement says data "should be handled responsibly, consistent with the law and in ways that earn and maintain consumer trust," while defending loyalty programs, coupons and electronic shelf labels as savings tools. Membership programs "should always be voluntary," and shelf labels should update prices quickly, "not change prices based on who is in the aisle."

A tax break for brewers who feed farms

House Agriculture Committee Chair Glenn "GT" Thompson, R-Pa., and Rep. Mike Kelly, R-Pa., introduced the Brews to Barns Act, creating a tax credit on beer for brewers who donate spent grain for agricultural use. Brewers Association CEO Bart Watson said the bill helps "turn a byproduct of the brewing process into a valuable resource for farmers." Kelly said it "incentivizes a collaborative effort between small breweries and local farmers to strengthen local supply chains."

Separately, 45 House Democrats asked Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins to drop a new rule requiring Rural Energy for America Program grant applicants to have projects fully operational for a year before applying, arguing it blocks farmers from revenue-stabilizing projects.

The Senate map, the Russian diesel fight and the Brazil currency shock all remain open — each will move prices or policy before year-end.