Soybeans fall below $12 as USDA crop, export tests loom

January soybean futures (contracts priced for delivery in January) closed at $12.02 per bushel on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, after touching an intraday low of $11.98 on the Chicago Board of Trade, a session loss of 11 cents.

Pressure came from weaker soybean oil and crude oil prices. December corn futures gained 1 cent to settle at $4.42 per bushel, while December Chicago wheat slipped to $5.98. Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat futures also finished lower.

The market moved in opposite directions, with a one-cent corn gain against an 11-cent soybean decline, as traders balanced production forecasts, export activity and changes across energy markets.

What does the November 10 USDA report test?

The next major catalyst for farmers, grain traders and agricultural cooperatives is the USDA's November 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, which will update crop yields, ending stocks (the supply remaining after a marketing year's demand) and the balance of supply and demand.

Before the release, StoneX, an agricultural analytics firm, estimated corn yields at 183.1 bushels per acre and soybean yields at 55 bushels per acre.

Those figures provide a private production forecast, not a harvested result. The available information gives no StoneX sampling method or update window, so producers and traders should compare those details with USDA's before treating any gap as proof of a supply revision.

A material difference could influence futures prices, expected ending stocks and marketing decisions for corn and soybean growers.

Can export demand offset production expectations?

The USDA reported a sale of 167,000 metric tons of soybeans to Spain for the 2026/27 marketing year.

The transaction shows continued international interest in U.S. soybeans, but one sale does not establish a broader demand trend.

Export sales reports will help traders judge whether overseas purchases can absorb available supplies and support cash bids, local basis (the difference between a local cash price and the relevant futures benchmark) and farm profitability.

Why do energy markets matter to soybean margins?

Market reports put December crude oil futures at $88.50 per barrel, down $7.59 during the session.

The crude decline coincided with weaker soybean oil, a feedstock for renewable diesel and other biofuel applications.

For soybean processors and producers, shifts in biofuel demand expectations can affect soybean oil values, crush margins (the value of soybean oil and meal relative to the beans purchased) and the wider agricultural supply chain.

What does corn rootworm resistance change for growers?

Resistance among corn rootworm populations across the Midwest is putting new biological insecticides (crop-protection products that use living organisms or their natural compounds) under a field test.

No product names, treated acreage, application rates, trial yields or cost data accompanied the development, leaving it an agronomic alert rather than a harvested result.

For corn growers, the missing cost and efficacy figures prevent a firm assessment of biological-insecticide input costs or any yield benefit.

What do livestock losses mean for farm margins?

Livestock trading finished broadly lower:

• November feeder cattle fell $2.50 to $332.02 per hundredweight (100 pounds).
• December live cattle slipped to $218.00 per hundredweight.
• December lean hog futures fell $1.05 to $57.55 per hundredweight.
• The CME Lean Hog Index fell to $64.99 per hundredweight, below its January 2024 low.

Those losses reinforced uncertainty over livestock prices, processing demand and producer margins, even as relatively lower grain prices offered some relief on feed costs.

The feed-cost benefit therefore arrived alongside weaker livestock revenue signals.

How should growers manage risk before WASDE?

For farmers and agricultural cooperatives, futures prices provide reference points rather than final margin calculations.

January soybeans near $12 and corn above $4.40 serve as market benchmarks, but local cash bids, transportation expenses, storage charges and input costs ultimately determine profitability.

Producers with remaining inventories should assess how basis movements, crop insurance coverage and existing hedging strategies (offsetting commodity-price risk) affect their marketing opportunities instead of relying only on futures direction.

Managing price exposure before the report requires flexibility because a stronger production estimate could pressure cash bids while export demand could support them.

The next trading sessions will test whether soybean buyers can hold prices around the $12-per-bushel threshold.

Grain producers, livestock operators and agricultural investors will focus on one question: can demand offset production expectations and stabilize commodity prices as the 2026 marketing season enters its final weeks?

The November 10 WASDE report, export sales activity and energy-market moves should indicate whether supply or demand sets the next direction.