Bids for feed barley delivered to Lethbridge in October through December slipped slightly to C$295 per tonne, while New Year delivery positions held at C$300 per tonne, according to Brandon Motz of CorNine Commodities in Lacombe, Alta.

Feed grain prices have "stabilized" over the past couple of weeks as new grain comes off Prairie fields, Motz said. The pattern breaks from typical harvest-time softness, largely because growers are holding back.

"Farmers aren't really in a big panic to sell. So there hasn't been a lot of off-combine movement that, historically, is a weaker time for prices in the industry," he said.

Grain prices usually decline at harvest as supplies hit the market. This year, several variables are keeping bids elevated, Motz added, including rising input and fuel prices.

Fuel costs squeeze freight margins

As fuel prices continue to climb, grain buyers will have to "eat up" those costs rather than pass them along, Motz said. The burden falls on the freight and handling side of the chain.

"I think it's a very real concern," he said. "It will take some fairly creative management and strategy in terms of companies … There are some very real risks when it comes to high fuel prices for the entire freight industry. Unfortunately, it's where we're at and we can't do anything except move forward cautiously, but we will see margins become eroded."

The margin pressure lands on buyers and logistics firms at the same time cattle feeders gear up for winter feeding, when feed grain demand typically strengthens.

Harvest delays slow buying

A delayed harvest has slowed feed grain buying activity of late. Wet weather across the Canadian Prairies has disrupted combining progress and kept new supplies from moving freely.

Motz expects demand to pick up over the next two weeks as cattle come off summer pasture and enter feedlots. That seasonal influx should underpin bids even as more grain reaches the market.

He acknowledged the market remains in a "very volatile" situation, making short-term price direction hard to call.

"It's really anyone's guess," Motz said. "Unless something majorly falls apart, I don't think [prices will go] lower in the short term."

Prairie bid board as of Sept. 24

Prairie Ag Hotwire reported delivered feed barley bids in Alberta at C$5.30 to C$6.42 per bushel as of Sept. 24, down 11 cents from the previous week. Saskatchewan bids held steady at C$4.42 to C$5.19 per bushel, while Manitoba bids rose 12 cents to C$4.50 to C$4.94 per bushel.

Feed wheat bids in Alberta ranged from C$6.38 to C$8.84 per bushel, down 14 cents week over week. Manitoba feed wheat bids held unchanged at C$6.56 to C$6.75 per bushel, and Saskatchewan reported a single bid at C$8.15 per bushel, also steady.

The mixed bid picture — Alberta barley and wheat lower, Manitoba barley higher, Saskatchewan flat — reflects a market in transition between a delayed harvest and the start of heavy feedlot demand. With farmer selling restrained, fuel costs climbing and cattle moving into feedyards over the coming two weeks, Motz sees downside risk for Prairie feed grain prices as limited in the short term.