Potash at a 10-Year Low Still Has Growers Delaying Inputs

By Rebecca Stone

Potash prices in The Mill's market area reached their lowest level in about a decade in 2026, yet many growers still deferred fertilizer purchases until close to spring planting. That caution persisted despite very good yields from the 2025 harvest and a favorable basis that supported local grain prices, the price spread against a benchmark.

Ben Hushon, a Certified Crop Advisor with Maryland-based The Mill, described the hesitation on a recent episode of CropLife Retail Week. He linked the delays to commodity-price uncertainty, nutrient alternatives, precision-agriculture tools and changing field conditions, while warning retailers to prepare for 2027.

Why are growers holding off on inputs?

Hushon said: “The first word that jumps to my mind for 2026 coming into spring was paralysis.” His perspective covers The Mill's market area and reflects one retailer's observations, not a formal industry survey.

• Commodity prices and farm economics. Very good 2025 yields and favorable basis gave growers some financial breathing room, but concern about grain prices and overall farm economics kept them from committing early. Many waited until near planting, leaving retailers less time to forecast demand and decide how far ahead to buy product.

• Fertilizer prices did not end the wait. Many growers in the area traditionally applied potash (a potassium fertilizer) in fall and winter ahead of spring planting, but they did not do so in 2026 despite the 10-year regional low. Some phosphorus prices approached $1,000 per ton, and farmers considered poultry manure transported from Pennsylvania as an alternative nutrient source.

The retailer misread sulfur demand. Hushon said The Mill misjudged demand for ammonium sulfate (a sulfur fertilizer) as prices reached record levels, prompting significantly reduced purchases. That experience left retailers with a forecasting problem when growers delay commitments or change nutrient sources.

Precision agriculture widened the decision window. Field-level data, nitrogen modeling and variable-rate fertilizer and seeding (rates that vary across a field) let growers defer choices until planting.

The Mill launched Decision Ag Solutions in 2021 and moved Hushon's son from agronomy into a full-time role helping farmers use precision data. Hushon said growers kept yield maps in three-ring binders without using them to guide field-specific and eventually subfield-specific decisions.

Weather and in-season conditions reset priorities. Dry July 2026 conditions led some farmers to reconsider corn fungicide applications, believing the investment might not pay off. As conditions and market opportunities changed, some wished they had treated more acres. These reports concern treatment decisions, not harvested 2026 results.

For retailers, delayed decisions create two linked risks: excess inventory purchased before commitments arrive and inadequate stock when farmers finally act. Hushon emphasized regular communication, understanding individual farm economics and helping growers assess changing conditions and application windows.

What changes for the 2027 buying season?

Hushon expects financing and inventory management to gain importance as farmers seek more financing options. Retailers must balance excess inventory against the risk of unavailable products when commitments finally arrive. He put it: “As an ag retailer, I believe you can't sell what you don't have.”

Retailers also need to understand why growers delay, not merely anticipate what they eventually will buy. The Mill's reduced ammonium sulfate purchases document the company's response to record prices, rather than a market-wide demand total.

Hushon's observations come from one retailer and one region, with no sample size, acreage totals or published price index provided. His potash and phosphorus observations therefore offer a regional planning signal rather than a precise volume forecast. The July fungicide discussion likewise reports decisions and second thoughts, not harvested results.

How can retailers respond to late decisions?

More financing options remain a grower demand, while retailers can respond with regular communication and technical assistance that turns precision-agriculture data into field-level decisions. They can also help growers reassess application windows as weather and crop conditions shift, supporting customer relationships.

That guidance matters when fertilizer alternatives, crop-protection spending and uncertain grain prices squeeze farm margins (revenue remaining after input and operating costs).

The full CropLife Retail Week episode also covers The Mill's precision-agriculture initiatives, artificial intelligence for connecting technology platforms, the 2027 outlook and strategies for retailer preparation.

For 2027, Hushon expects financing choices and careful inventory positioning to remain central as retailers prepare for later grower commitments.