US farmers are watching the conflict involving Iran with one question in view: what it will do to fertilizer prices and availability heading into their next purchasing windows.

The Associated Press reports that the fighting has growers worried on two fronts — cost and physical supply. Fertilizer is among the largest variable expenses on most American row-crop operations, so even a modest move in nitrogen, phosphate or potash prices translates directly into per-acre margins already squeezed by soft commodity prices and elevated borrowing costs.

The concern is not abstract for producers. Iran sits on the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for a large share of globally traded energy. Natural gas is the primary feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer, and any disruption that lifts gas or oil prices — or complicates shipping routes — feeds into the cost of anhydrous ammonia, urea and UAN that farmers apply ahead of planting. Middle East turmoil has repeatedly preceded spikes in global urea benchmarks, and US growers still remember the price surge that followed the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, when some nitrogen products roughly doubled and availability tightened.

Retail purchasing adds another layer of risk. Many farmers prepay or forward-contract fertilizer months before application, so a conflict-driven rally can catch them mid-book — committed to some volume at older prices while facing sharply higher quotes on remaining needs. Others delay purchases hoping for a pullback, a strategy that backfires when supply lines tighten and retailers ration product.

The AP account reflects a pattern trade groups and farm-state lawmakers have flagged before: input markets tend to react to geopolitical risk faster than crop prices do, compressing farm margins before growers can respond. When diesel, fertilizer and crop-protection chemicals rise together, the cost of producing an acre of corn or wheat can climb tens of dollars in a single season with no corresponding gain in the price received at the elevator.

For now, the situation remains one of risk rather than realized shortage. The degree of impact depends on how long the fighting lasts, whether shipping through the region is disrupted, and how global fertilizer producers and traders reroute supply. Condition reports from the farm sector capture worry; they are not the same as confirmed supply outages or settled price levels for the season ahead.

Growers and their advisers will be watching fertilizer benchmarks, retailer quotes and energy markets in the weeks ahead, since purchasing decisions made now will shape input costs — and ultimately margins — for the next crop cycle.