Fertilizer prices are expected to remain high through 2028, according to CoBank's latest market outlook, a projection that extends the input-cost squeeze on grain and oilseed producers well beyond a single crop cycle.

The forecast matters for farm margins because fertilizer typically ranks among the largest variable costs per acre for corn and wheat growers. When nitrogen, phosphate and potash prices stay elevated for years rather than months, the effect compounds: cash-rent negotiations, crop-insurance guarantees and forward-selling decisions all get repriced against an input baseline that refuses to fall back toward pre-spike levels.

CoBank, a cooperative lender serving rural infrastructure and agribusiness borrowers, has tracked the fertilizer market through the volatility that began with the 2021–2022 supply shock. That run-up followed European natural gas prices that curtailed ammonia production, sanctions-related disruptions in potash supply, and strong global demand. Even as some gas and freight costs eased from their peaks, retail fertilizer prices at the farm gate proved sticky — a pattern the lender now expects to persist into 2028.

For growers, the practical consequence is budgeting under a higher floor. Producers who financed the 2023 and 2024 crop years at elevated input prices already saw breakevens rise faster than commodity revenues in several regions. A multi-year outlook for expensive fertilizer pushes the question of input financing, dealer prepay programs and nutrient-management planning higher up the agenda for the 2025 season and beyond.

Cooperatives and retailers sit in the middle of the forecast. Elevated and persistent fertilizer costs change how ag retailers manage inventory and how farmer-owned co-ops price forward contracts with members. The lender's projection suggests those intermediaries should plan for continued working-capital demands rather than a near-term return to cheaper replacement costs.

The policy backdrop adds another layer. Domestic fertilizer production has drawn federal attention as a food-security issue, and any expansion of North American capacity would take years to move the supply-demand balance. In the interim, growers' exposure to global energy markets and import flows remains direct: what happens to natural gas prices abroad feeds into nitrogen costs at home.

Analysts reading the CoBank outlook will want to distinguish between headline commodity benchmarks and what farmers actually pay at retail, since distribution margins, seasonal demand peaks and regional supply logistics all widen the gap between the two. Condition-style reports on affordability and firm forecasts of price levels carry different weight, and lenders' outlooks sit closer to the second category — a forward-looking estimate subject to revision as energy markets and trade policy shift.

For the farm economy, the takeaway from CoBank's projection is duration. An input-cost shock that fades in eighteen months is a cash-flow problem; one that lasts into 2028 becomes a structural feature of crop budgeting. Growers, co-ops and their lenders will now test the forecast against each season's actual purchase prices, starting with fall application.