Grain futures traders priced in a wave of Chinese buying that never showed up, and commodities economist Arlan Suderman says that gap between expectation and reality is now weighing on the market.

Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX Group, says grain markets reacted with disappointment as more details emerged from last week's U.S.–China trade meeting. The lack of immediate purchase announcements left futures traders looking for follow-through that has yet to arrive.

"I think the markets had unrealistic expectations that we were going to immediately see orders on the books," Suderman says.

The distinction matters for growers watching basis and cash prices. Diplomatic announcements of goodwill and actual export sales confirmed by USDA are two different things, and the market's initial reaction reflected hopes rather than booked business.

Suderman says he expects Chinese purchases to materialize, but on a timeline that lags the headline announcements from the meeting. Traders hoping for instant export sales confirmation were bound to be disappointed, because procurement at China's state buyer level moves through its own approval and logistics processes.

For farmers, the practical question is what this means for marketing plans. If export demand materializes gradually rather than in a single burst, the price response may build more slowly than the rally some traders anticipated. That argues for watching daily export sales reports and inspection data rather than trading on the expectation of headline-scale announcements.

Suderman's read also separates two things the market often conflates: the political signal from a trade meeting and the commercial flow that follows. The first arrived last week. The second, he suggests, remains ahead.

The coming weeks will show whether China converts the meeting's commitments into confirmed orders, and Suderman is watching for that pipeline to fill even if it did not open immediately.