Combined wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine are down 60 percent from last year, and the two countries — which normally supply roughly a quarter of world wheat exports — are losing shipping capacity at the fastest pace since Russia's full-scale invasion began in February 2022.

The trigger is a sharp escalation in strikes on commercial vessels and port infrastructure that began in mid-July. Ambrey, a UK-based global maritime risk firm, counted more than 210 strikes on commercial vessels in the Black Sea between July and the end of September, attributing 125 to Ukraine and 88 to Russia. Russia aims to halt Ukraine's exports and squeeze its economy; Kyiv, in turn, is targeting vessels tied to Moscow's shadow fleet and port infrastructure to blunt Russia's war financing.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization reports world wheat prices are already up 15 percent from a year ago, driven partly by Black Sea disruptions. "Prices are already increasing, and I think we can expect grain prices, especially wheat prices, to continue to increase," said Caitlin Welsh, director of the Global Food and Water Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Welsh notes the current situation differs from 2022, when global food prices hit a record in nominal terms after the invasion began. Now a significant share of Russia's export capacity is offline too. "Now it's not just Russia attacking Ukraine, it's Ukraine also attacking Russia, and those things are happening at the same time," she said. She doubts prices will return to 2022 peaks but points to compounding shocks: the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and El Niño droughts in key wheat-producing regions.

For growers and traders, the mathematics of moving grain out of the region have deteriorated on two fronts: physical access and freight cost. London-based insurers have expanded the area of the Black Sea they classify as high risk, as vessels are now being hit farther south in the sea. Ambrey also reports that more than 50 pieces of unexploded ordnance have been found outside Russian and Ukrainian waters so far this year — a count that raises the hazard premium on any route touching the basin.

Ukraine's own work-around is failing. After the UN- and Turkey-brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative collapsed in 2023 when Russia refused to renew it, Kyiv established a corridor running vessels along the coastlines of Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania before reaching Ukrainian ports. Russia's widespread attacks since July have disrupted that route as well. Diplomatic efforts, including Turkey-led attempts at a limited Black Sea truce, have so far failed.

On the ground, the port system is under direct pressure. Russia has routinely attacked Ukrainian ports and ships, including Izmail on the Danube River bordering Romania, but has ratcheted up strikes since July. Russia's Defence Ministry insists it targets only military assets; after hitting a cargo vessel in Chornomorsk on Thursday, officials accused the ship of supplying the military.

Dmytro Barinov, president of the Ukrainian Ports Association, disputes that account. He points to the missile strike on the vessel Golden Leo near Odesa in July, which killed ten people. Ukrainian officials said the ship was carrying corn, and the Ukrainian navy said Russia launched three cruise missiles at it as it was "leaving the combat zone with a cargo of grain."

Barinov describes Russia's attacks on merchant shipping as one-sided. "It's like hunting for an elephant from a helicopter," he said in Odesa, noting that merchant ships are slow, unable to manoeuvre quickly and carry no military defences.

Ukraine has answered in kind. In August it launched a massive missile and drone strike on the Russian port of Novorossiysk, hitting a naval base and damaging two major grain export terminals. The 108-metre Russian-flagged cargo ship OMSKIY-107, damaged in a drone attack near Novorossiysk, was abandoned by its crew and later ran aground off Istanbul's Sile district on Sept. 3.

The stakes for buyers in import-dependent regions are immediate. "The price jumps at the gas station and everybody feels the lack of fuel. And here, believe me, very soon — October, November latest — everybody will feel the shortage of food in our region, unfortunately," Barinov said.

Patrol crews are working whatever gaps they can find. "We are trying to find some windows in time between Russian attacks to patrol, to search for mines and some explosive materials," said Mykola Lupar, a 29-year-old Ukrainian patrol boat commander based at Chornomorsk. "It's very dangerous. For the merchant fleet, I would say there's almost no chance to stay safe in our waters."

With both sides seeking alternative export routes, no truce in sight, and insurance risk zones widening, analysts warn wheat prices could spike further — meaning importers and domestic millers should brace for continued pressure on grain basis and input costs through the fourth quarter.