2026 ARC-IC Decision: Who Should Pick the Whole-Farm Option by December 11

USDA's deadline for the 2026 ARC/PLC election is December 11, 2026 — months later than the usual March 15 cutoff, and that changes how growers should evaluate ARC-IC, the Agriculture Risk Coverage individual option that pays on only 65% of base acres.

Because the deadline lands after harvest, most producers already know their 2026 farm yields. That's the first time in years they can run the ARC-IC math with actual numbers instead of projections. University of Illinois economists laid out the case in a farmdoc daily analysis, and the arithmetic is unforgiving: ARC-IC pays on 65% of base acres while ARC-CO and PLC pay on 85%. For ARC-IC to match ARC-CO under an equal percentage revenue loss, the farm benchmark must run roughly 30% above the county benchmark (85 ÷ 65 = 1.31).

What did the One Big Beautiful Bill Act change?

The OBBBA rewrote the ARC and PLC programs starting with the 2025 crop year, and the changes carry into 2026. For ARC-IC, the revenue guarantee rose to 90% of benchmark and the payment cap rose to 12% of benchmark revenue, matching ARC-CO. The practical result: ARC-IC payments are more likely to trigger and will be larger when they do.

In 2025, OBBBA provisions let producers receive the higher of the ARC-CO or PLC payment automatically. For 2026, the annual crop-by-crop choice returns. Any payments triggered for the 2026 crop year won't arrive until October 2027.

How the ARC-IC math works

ARC-IC is a whole-farm revenue program. It pools all planted covered commodities on all FSA farms a producer enrolls within a state, then pays when farm-level revenue per acre falls below the guarantee. Three steps drive the calculation:

• Benchmark revenue: For each covered commodity, revenue for 2020–2024 equals farm yield times the higher of the marketing year average (MYA) price or the effective reference price. Years without planting use FSA replacement county yields. The Olympic average of the five years, weighted by 2026 planted acres, sets the benchmark.
• Actual revenue: 2026 farm yields times 2026 MYA prices, weighted by 2026 planted acres.
• Payment: The guarantee (90% of benchmark) minus actual revenue, capped at 12% of benchmark, paid on 65% of total base acres.

Farm yields come from FSA form CCC-863, supportable by RMA production records. Yields below 80% of the county T-yield get replaced at 80% of T-yield; unplanted benchmark years get the county ARC-CO yield.

What does this change for growers weighing the choice?

The November WASDE projects 2026/27 MYA prices at $4.60 per bushel for corn, $12.10 for soybeans and $6.20 for wheat — the one major unknown left in the calculation, since farm yields are largely known. Final MYA prices won't be settled until late October 2027 for corn and soybeans, and late June 2027 for wheat.

The Farm Bill What-If Tool's updated ARC-IC Calculator runs the numbers. In a Blue Earth County, Minnesota example — 80 acres of corn and 40 acres of soybeans, with corn suffering a localized loss while soybeans tracked trend — the tool estimated a payment of $22.63 per base acre, already net of the 65% factor and directly comparable with ARC-CO and PLC per-base-acre estimates.

Who might find ARC-IC attractive in 2026?

ARC-IC has been a niche pick. Enrollment peaked after 2019's widespread prevented planting, hitting about 6% of corn and soybean base acres in 2019 before falling to roughly 1% in 2021 and 2022. Four situations favor a closer look:

• Entire-farm prevented planting. If FSA approved every intended covered acre as prevented planting, actual revenue is zero and ARC-IC pays the maximum: 12% of benchmark on 65% of base acres. Plant even one covered crop, and only that crop's revenue counts.
• Localized yield loss. Hail, flooding or field-specific drought that hits the farm but not the county leaves ARC-CO empty-handed. ARC-IC uses farm yields certified to FSA. Note that diversification cuts both ways — corn-only in the Minnesota example would have paid more, since soybean revenue pulled the farm figure up.
• Farm yields well above county yields. Higher farm yields raise the benchmark and any payment size, though not the odds of triggering.
• Fruits, vegetables or wild rice on base acres. ARC-IC tolerates planting on up to 35% of base acres before payment reductions, versus 15% for ARC-CO and PLC.

ARC-IC also demands more paperwork. Yields must be certified to FSA, and payments have historically processed slower than ARC-CO and PLC checks.

Combining multiple FSA farms

FSA doesn't average payments across enrolled farms — it averages benchmark and actual revenue across all crops on all farms, weighted by planted acres. That pooling can dilute or boost the total. The suggested strategy: estimate ARC-IC payments farm by farm, rank them high to low, then add farms one at a time, keeping each addition that raises the total payment.

Growers can compare results against the online ARC/PLC Calculator and the UMN ARC/PLC tool, and farmdoc and Minnesota Extension will cover the decision in webinars on Tuesday, November 17. Local FSA offices can confirm yield records and certification requirements. Unless a farm was fully prevented planted or took a localized hit in 2026, ARC-CO or PLC likely still wins the margin math.