2026 Farm Program Sign-Up Open: PLC vs ARC Calls Hinge on Yields

Farm program sign-up for the 2026 crop year opened Sept. 16 and runs until Dec. 11 at County Farm Service Agency offices, and producers must enroll in both 2026 and 2027 programs to stay eligible for any payments. The 2027 crop year sign-up window runs Nov. 2, 2026, through March 15, 2027, the same deadline as 2027 crop insurance for corn, soybeans and other spring crops. Farmers can switch their 2026 program election until Dec. 11, 2026, and their 2027 election until March 15, 2027.

The 30 million crop base acres added earlier this year count toward potential 2026 payments, which will likely be paid in October 2027. Producers again choose among three options on each FSA farm unit: price-only Price Loss Coverage, county-based Ag Risk Coverage (ARC-CO), and ARC-IC, which uses market-year average prices with farm-level yields and carries distinct provisions. Choices can differ crop by crop on the same farm unit — PLC for corn and wheat, ARC-CO for soybeans, for example — and operators with land in multiple counties can split the same crop across counties.

What are the 2026 price triggers?

PLC reference prices for 2026 are $4.42 per bushel for corn, $10.71 for soybeans and $6.35 for wheat. The MYA price must finish below those levels to trigger a payment, and final yields do not factor into PLC.

ARC benchmark prices run higher:

• Corn: $5.03/bu., with the 90% guarantee at $4.53/bu.
• Soybeans: $12.17/bu., 90% of benchmark at $10.95/bu.
• Wheat: $6.98/bu., 90% of benchmark at $6.28/bu.

Where do prices stand?

USDA on Oct. 1, 2026 estimated 2026-27 MYA prices at $4.70 for corn, $12.00 for soybeans and $6.30 for wheat — all above corn and soybean reference prices, with wheat a penny under its trigger. Prices have declined considerably across all crops since that estimate. The corn and soybean marketing year runs Sept. 1, 2026 through Aug. 31, 2027; wheat and small grains run June 1, 2026 through May 31, 2027, so current price trends have limited impact on final payment calculations.

History favors PLC odds. Final MYA prices from 2014 to 2025 landed below the 2026 reference prices for corn and soybeans about 67% of the time, and below the 2026 wheat reference price about 75% of the time. The 2025-26 MYA prices closed at $4.16 for corn, $10.50 for soybeans and $5.06 for wheat — all payment-triggering levels.

How much do yields matter?

A lot. Some analysts advise automatically picking ARC-CO for corn and soybeans given current MYA projections, but final county yields can flip that math. If the final 2026 county average yield lands more than 5% above the county benchmark yield, ARC-CO payment odds for corn or soybeans shrink sharply. The final ARC-CO county yields will come from Risk Management Agency crop insurance averages, released in late May 2027.

ARC-IC pays on only 65% of base acres, versus 85% for ARC-CO and PLC. All ARC-IC farm units in a state, and all crops on a unit, are aggregated for payment calculations. That makes a single crop with a 2026 yield loss on one farm unit the strongest ARC-IC case. The best choice varies county to county, farm to farm, crop to crop.

Farm management analyst Kent Thiesse partnered with the Minnesota Corn Growers Association on a video series covering PLC and ARC-CO details for corn and soybeans, with region-specific guidance for Minnesota; resources and a cheat sheet are posted at mncorn.org. Program data, including 2026 county benchmark yields and revenues, is available through fsa.usda.gov. Producers should weigh likely final yields on their own farms and counties before locking elections by Dec. 11.