Nov. 10 WASDE: Corn Below 16 Billion Bushels, Soybeans Set to Rise

USDA's November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE, the government's monthly crop supply and demand report) arrive Nov. 10 with corn production tracking below the 16 billion bushels the government projected in October and soybeans potentially rising above the 4.56 billion bushels printed a month earlier. Because December projections rarely move markets, this release sets expectations until annual estimates land in January.

What does the election change for farm policy?

Midterm results will give Washington new faces on congressional committees, including new gavel-holders calling witnesses. Agriculture is unlikely to see a major overhaul. Passage of a farm bill remains overshadowed by data centers, energy prices, and wars in Ukraine and the Middle East that cut through the heart of farm country.

The current session has three weeks or fewer of working days left before members are sworn in for the 120th Congress. Lame-duck lawmakers must still clear spending bills and the national debt limit, with horse trading, stalemates, presidential vetoes, and executive actions likely to trigger lawsuits headed to the Supreme Court.

How solid are the supply numbers?

Total supply combines imports, production, and carryout from the previous marketing year, all based on objective field surveys. Demand is more subjective: it forecasts what will be, not what was, and that creates room for larger revisions.

Crop ratings and vegetation health indexes ended the season pointing to corn below 16 billion bushels. Soybeans could come in slightly above 4.56 billion.

Why are soybeans the swing factor?

The U.S. growing season is ending just as Southern Hemisphere planting begins. Heavy coverage of El Niño (the warming of the equatorial Pacific) obscures the record: the phenomenon is associated with better-than-normal yields in Argentina and has no noticeable impact on Brazil. Overall, South American crops are in better shape so far than a year ago.

China matters most. Chinese customs data show U.S. imports fell to almost nothing as the 2025-26 marketing year closed in August. China shut off U.S. soybean purchases in response to Trump administration tariffs, then agreed to buy at least 25 million metric tons annually from the U.S. through 2028. Sales so far in 2026 run about 25% short of that target, and China knows farmers anchor Trump's coalition.

Brazil's politics add another layer. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won a surprise fourth term as president, defeating Flávio Bolsonaro, who fled to the U.S. for asylum and had been a harsh critic of Beijing. Bolsonaro's father, Jair, is in jail after losing in 2022 to Lula, a Chinese ally.

Can biofuels carry corn demand?

Corn usage is more diffuse than soybean demand: exports, livestock feed, and ethanol grind. Biofuels have made so-called industrial usage the largest demand category. The author's models put total corn grind for ethanol on track to beat USDA forecasts by roughly 140 million bushels if markets operate freely — but lobbyist and legal intervention could push production either way. Resolution of the Iran war could cheapen gasoline and lift blending demand.

The projected corn surplus on Aug. 31, 2027, could come in slightly tighter than USDA's October estimate, yet the average cash price received by farmers could land 25 to 50 cents below USDA's $4.70 forecast. Soybean carryout could rise by about 25 million bushels, putting the government's $12 October cash price in jeopardy.

Could the macro picture override the data?

The economy added 165,000 jobs in October and unemployment fell. A strong report could give the Federal Reserve a green light to raise rates, and investors brace for two quarter-point hikes over the next year. Key financial metrics have reverted to the mean on inflation, unemployment, and interest rates after a decade of wild swings. That could mean extended choppiness — or a breakout back to volatility that reaches grain and oilseed basis alike.

The Nov. 11 Veterans Day bank and bond market closure pauses trading reflection one day after the WASDE drops.