UAN28 and urea carried the steepest declines in the latest DTN Progressive Farmer fertilizer price tracker, dragging the broader nitrogen complex lower and trimming input costs for corn growers heading into sidedress and top-dress applications.

The DTN retail price series tracks weekly quotes from ag retailers across the U.S. Corn Belt and reports weighted average prices for the major fertilizer products. In the most recent print, nitrogen — anchored by UAN28 and urea — led the move to the downside.

What is driving the nitrogen slide?

Two forces are doing the work: lower natural gas values at global ammonia and urea production hubs, which trim the marginal cost of nitrogen; and softer import demand from major offshore buyers such as India and Brazil, which leaves more supply available to U.S. distributors. UAN28, a 28% nitrogen solution produced by blending urea ammonium nitrate with water, follows the urea market because solution manufacturers price off the urea-ammonium-nitrate value chain.

How retailers and growers are responding

Cooperative managers in the Midwest say UAN28 quotes have moved off fall highs, prompting buyers who prepaid at the seasonal peak to ask about rollovers or credits toward future prepay. Growers who held off are now negotiating spring prepay terms for fall delivery, even as in-season applications continue. Phosphate and potash prices have held closer to recent ranges, leaving DAP and MAP as the products to watch for the next leg of cost relief.

The supply-side picture

Urea supply is global, with major production concentrated in countries that use natural gas as the primary feedstock. When gas prices ease at those hubs, urea offers into the U.S. typically loosen, and barge terminals at New Orleans and the Mississippi River system reset wholesale values downward. UAN28, produced domestically at a smaller number of facilities, lags urea by days to weeks because solution pricing resets off dry-product benchmarks plus conversion and handling costs.

Why the timing matters for 2025 budgets

The pullback lands as corn operations finalize 2025 cost-of-production projections. Even a modest reduction in per-acre nitrogen expense shifts breakeven calculations for growers running thin 2024 margins. The math matters most in continuous corn and high-yield corn-on-corn rotations, where nitrogen represents the single largest input line.

What to watch in the next DTN print

The open question is whether phosphate and potash follow nitrogen lower or whether the nitrogen slide stabilizes near current levels. DTN's next weekly retail survey will provide the first read. Traders will also watch global urea benchmarks for confirmation that the move has further to run, while U.S. retailers gauge whether growers lock in fall prepay at the lower quotes or hold out for additional weakness.