Texas-Oklahoma Storm Delivers 6-8 Inches, Trims Drought; Deep South Dries Out

A three-day storm dropped 3 to 5 inches of rain on the southeastern Texas Panhandle and 6 to 8 inches west of Oklahoma City between Oct. 13 and 15, driving widespread one-category drought improvements across Texas and Oklahoma, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. The same weekly map shows the opposite trend from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the western Ohio Valley, where exceptional drought expanded in southern Arkansas and Keetch-Byram Drought Index readings hit 700 to 800 — a level signaling severe dryness and elevated wildfire risk.

Oklahoma City recorded 4.99 inches by late afternoon Oct. 14, per the NWS office in Norman, while Lubbock, Texas, took in 2.04 inches during the storm period. The runoff pushed the Middle Wichita River near Guthrie, Texas, to a record crest of 18.91 feet and caused localized flooding. Rainfall departures locally exceeded 6 inches above normal, trimming exceptional drought across western and northern Texas, the Panhandle and much of Oklahoma — though accumulated moisture deficits kept analysts from removing drought designations outright.

Where did conditions worsen?

Drought intensified across Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and southern Missouri, with localized degradations reaching into Alabama, northern Georgia and the southern Midwest. Persistent 30- to 90-day precipitation shortfalls, depleted soil moisture and exceptionally low streamflows drove the downgrades. Extreme drought expanded across northern Arkansas; exceptional drought developed or expanded in the state's south. Agricultural impact reports documented worsening conditions across Arkansas, the monitor noted.

What changed in the Midwest and Plains?

Conditions were mixed across the Midwest. Minnesota and Iowa received roughly 0.25 to 1.5 inches of rain, locally 1.5 to 2 inches, enough to stabilize short-term conditions but not to erase longer-term deficits. Southern Missouri saw the sharpest deterioration, with extreme drought expanding along the Arkansas border, even as other parts of Missouri posted one-category improvements.

The High Plains improved in spots. Eastern Colorado, Nebraska and Kansas received more than 200% of normal precipitation in places — locally over 400% — with 1 to 1.5 inches common in central Nebraska and 0.75 to 1.25 inches in eastern Wyoming. One-category improvements covered eastern Wyoming, eastern Colorado, Nebraska and Kansas. The only regional degradation came in northeastern Colorado. North Dakota and much of South Dakota saw no change after a week with less than 25% of normal rainfall.

What is the western water picture?

The West improved with no deterioration reported. A Oct. 14-15 storm left 4.3 inches of snow at Silver Lake Brighton, Utah, and 3 inches near Evanston, Wyoming, supporting improvements in western and central Wyoming, the Colorado Rockies and New Mexico. The gains stop at the reservoir gauge: Lake Powell held about 5.3 million acre-feet on Oct. 20 — roughly 22% of capacity — per the Bureau of Reclamation, and Rio Grande basin storage remained exceptionally low. Long-term hydrologic drought persists in both basins. Localized improvements hit Washington; Idaho streamflows and southeastern Montana surface water stayed short.

What is ahead?

The Weather Prediction Center's five-day forecast (Oct. 22-27) calls for 3 to 5 inches from western Texas, the Panhandle, eastern New Mexico, Oklahoma's Panhandle and southwestern Kansas, with 1 to 3 inches over Colorado and northern New Mexico. Much of the Mississippi Valley, Midwest, Southeast and Northeast should stay dry.

The Climate Prediction Center's 6- to 10-day outlook (Oct. 26-30) tilts above normal for temperatures across the southern two-thirds of the Lower 48, with the highest probabilities over the Southwest, Southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley — warmth that could raise evaporative demand where rain misses. Above-normal precipitation is favored from California and the Southwest through New Mexico and western Texas.

The monitor is produced jointly by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, USDA and NOAA. Condition maps reflect indicators through the reporting window, not harvested or verified outcomes — and the forecast warmth in the Lower Mississippi Valley suggests next week's map may undo part of this week's Plains gains before winter wheat establishment deepens.