Super El Niño Targets Deep Texas Drought, But Timing Could Delay Wheat Planting

Some Panhandle fields picked up 8-9 inches of rain over the past few weeks, yet most of Texas still shows drought on the U.S. Drought Monitor map. The reason, according to Ronnie Schnell, Ph.D., cropping systems specialist at Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service in Bryan-College Station, is simple: the water isn't going deep.

"We do have wet fields in places right now, but it's surface, so it's not deep moisture," Schnell said.

Early October storms left water standing in fields across parts of the state. Standing water doesn't equal recharge. Even areas that caught several inches haven't received enough to push past the drought threshold, and deep moisture has been lacking for years across the Panhandle, West, South and South Central Texas.

What does a wet winter actually fix?

A wet spring can carry some producers through a season, but the gains evaporate fast. "It dries up quickly because you just don't have a lot of deep moisture," Schnell said. "And you see that in stream flows, ponds and lakes – they're still low."

Moisture needs vary by region. Panhandle and South Texas producers need winter rain to rebuild soil profiles, but they'll also need in-season precipitation next year to lighten the load on irrigation.

The near-term risk cuts the other way. Producers planting winter wheat, oats and cool-season forages over the next month could face delays if repeated rains keep equipment out of fields. "It's just, when does it come and how much, and do we get enough of it to really recharge those profiles that are probably pretty dry in most areas of the state?" Schnell said.

What's 'super' about this El Niño?

John Nielsen-Gammon, Ph.D., Texas state climatologist and Regents Professor in Texas A&M's Department of Atmospheric Sciences, said the current El Niño has no historical match. Six El Niños over the past 75 years came close in strength, and they offer a preview.

The last significant winter El Niño ran 2015-2016. The wettest winter in the record came with 1991-1992.

"They generally produce wet weather from October through April, especially October through February, and somewhat cooler than normal temperatures," Nielsen-Gammon said. "Not dramatically so, but on the cool side because of all the rain, mainly."

Those events also brought increased snowfall to the northern half of the state. Computer models simulating this year's event point the same direction — wet and probably cool — giving forecasters strong confidence in the outlook.

The mechanics behind the forecast

El Niño strength hinges on Pacific trade winds, which normally pull cool water to the surface along the equator. When the winds fluctuate, so does the current carrying that cool water. This year, the current has nearly shut down.

"So, it's almost as strong as an El Niño can get," Nielsen-Gammon said. "We've got nothing but hot tropical surface water across the whole of the tropical Pacific."

The unusually warm tropics sharpen the temperature contrast with higher latitudes. That produces a stronger jet stream sitting farther south than normal. "That puts us more in the crosshairs of the weather systems that are carried along by the jet stream," he said.

A one-shot deal

The early October storms look like the kickoff to that pattern. Parts of Texas have already logged normal October rainfall, and much of the Panhandle — previously especially dry — received good rain in recent weeks.

"It may be too late for many agricultural crop purposes, but it'll be nice to have the water in the ground for the wintertime," Nielsen-Gammon said.

Outlooks consistently show El Niño peaking around December and weakening through spring. The spring following an El Niño tends to bring a milder severe weather season, and there's a good chance La Niña develops next year.

"So, this is probably a one-shot deal," Nielsen-Gammon said. For Texas producers, that makes the coming October-through-February window the main opportunity to bank deep moisture before the pattern flips.