U.S. soybean harvest reached just 17% completion through Sept. 27, falling short of every trade estimate issued ahead of Monday's USDA Crop Progress report, with analyst guesses ranging between 18% and 23%. The pace matches the prior five-year average exactly, but rain across the central U.S. over the past several days hampered fieldwork enough to leave the combine fleet behind expectations.

Corn harvest told a similar story. Producers had gathered 18% of the crop by Sunday, mirroring the five-year average but landing at the very bottom of trade guesses, which spanned 18% to 21%.

The data comes from USDA's weekly crop progress survey, released Monday afternoon and covering the week through Sept. 27. Condition figures reflect field observations as of Sunday; harvest percentages are cumulative progress, not harvested results.

Corn condition steady at 57% good-to-excellent

Corn quality held steady over the past week. USDA rated 57% of the crop in good-to-excellent condition through Sunday, with 26% rated fair and the remaining 17% poor or very poor — both unchanged from the prior week.

Pennsylvania (76%), Iowa (75%) and Minnesota (68%) hold the highest good-to-excellent ratings among the top 18 production states.

Physiologically, the corn crop is nearly finished. Ninety-six percent has dented, slightly ahead of the prior five-year average of 95%, and 72% is fully mature versus the five-year average of 71%.

Soybean quality holding at 58%

Soybean condition ratings held steady and matched analyst expectations, with 58% of the crop still rated good-to-excellent. Another 29% is rated fair, up 1 point from last week, while 13% is poor or very poor, down 1 point. Kentucky (75%), Iowa (74%) and Tennessee (71%) lead the top 18 production states so far.

On maturity, 75% of the soybean crop is dropping leaves, identical to the prior five-year average. Harvest, at 17% complete, trails the full range of pre-report trade estimates.

Winter wheat plantings lag

Winter wheat plantings improved from 17% a week ago to 27% through Sept. 27. That leaves the young 2026-27 crop behind last year's pace of 32% and the prior five-year average of 34%.

USDA's report also includes state-by-state topsoil and subsoil moisture readings and days suitable for fieldwork. With both major harvests running at or below the bottom of trade expectations, the trade's attention now shifts to whether drier conditions in the coming week let growers close the gap on a corn crop that is 72% mature and a soybean crop already at average leaf-drop progress.