December corn futures fell from a June 1 high of $4.77 per bushel to a contract low of $4.31 during June, as favorable weather across the Corn Belt and a sharp exodus of managed money crushed grain prices. July corn dropped from $4.59 to $4.03 over the same stretch.

Soybeans followed. July beans slid from $11.82 per bushel to $11.02 before finding psychological support at the $11 mark. November soybeans fell from $11.97 to $11.21. Crude oil led the decline lower once traders perceived tensions around Iran were settling down, and grain followed.

The crop condition data underpinned the selloff. In the last full week of June, USDA ratings showed corn at 68% good-to-excellent, against 70% a year earlier and a five-year average of 65%. Soybeans rated 66% good-to-excellent, matching last year and three points above the five-year average of 63%. These are condition reports, not harvested results — but traders price expectations, and the perception now is that U.S. crops are on pace to produce ample supply.

Funds flipped and fled

The positioning shift was dramatic. Managed funds sold their long corn positions and went short roughly 56,000 contracts, a swing from more than 300,000 contracts long in mid-May. In soybeans, funds remain long but have cut to just over 52,000 contracts, down from more than 200,000 long in May. Every intraday rally in late June met fresh fund selling, capping technical bounces in deeply oversold markets.

June 30 reports loom

USDA's Acreage and Grain Stocks reports, released June 30, offer the next concrete data points. Analysts are split: some expect an increase in 2026/2027 corn acres, while others argue high fertilizer costs last spring pushed more planting into soybeans. The March Perspective Plantings report pegged corn at 95.3 million acres and soybeans at 84.7 million acres.

Demand signals are mixed. China has made recent soybean purchases, but those buys only begin to chip away at this year's massive shortfall in soybean demand. Corn demand remains strong and ahead for the year, yet carryout stays plentiful — stocks on hand suggest no supply squeeze anytime soon.

Marketing implications for growers

For producers with unpriced bushels, any weather-driven bounce in the next two weeks could be a selling window. Elevator offers triggered on a bounce back to $4.52 per bushel, or $4.67 in December corn futures, merit consideration. July corn resistance sits at $4.25. In soybeans, a bounce to around $11.70 per bushel warrants selling on any news of additional Chinese purchases or hot, dry weather.

The downside risks are concrete. December corn traded below $4 in mid- to late August in each of the last two years; at the time of writing it sits near $4.38. A favorable July forecast could extend the slide into August. For new-crop soybeans, the 200-day moving average at $11.16 is the key support — lose it, and the $10 area becomes a longer-term target. Put options on remaining unpriced corn and soybeans offer one way to manage that exposure.

With a warmer, drier forecast arriving as the calendar turns to July, the growing season is far from over and condition ratings can deteriorate quickly. But with heavy stocks, flipped fund positioning, and prices already near contract lows, farmers planning fall sales should watch the June 30 USDA numbers and the July weather maps as the decisive variables for new-crop margins.