Senate Ag Panel Faces Major Reshuffle as Kansas, Iowa Races Tighten

Kansas Republican Sen. Roger Marshall leads Democrat Adam Hamilton by less than 1 percentage point with six days to the Nov. 3 election, and the outcome will help determine who runs Senate and House agriculture policy next Congress. More than 85% of Kansas land is in agriculture, and the state ranks first in winter wheat production and first in the value of exported beef and beef products.

Marshall, who chairs the Senate Ag subpanel overseeing conservation, forestry, pesticides and ag biotechnology, warned voters last week that Democratic Senate control would upend farm policy. "Elizabeth Warren would control the Banking Committee, Bernie Sanders would control health care, and Cory Booker would be in charge of the ag committee," Marshall said in a debate against Hamilton, a church minister. "We can't have that."

Booker, the New Jersey Democrat and ranking member of the subcommittee on commodity programs, crop insurance and trade, presses for stricter pesticide and food regulations. Republicans, meanwhile, are split on those issues as Make America Healthy Again adherents gain ground in GOP ranks. Marshall's argument that Democratic control would revive measures like the Green New Deal echoes GOP candidates across farm states and President Donald Trump. Democrats counter by tying Republicans to surging fuel and fertilizer costs and to policies on trade, nutrition aid, Iran, Russia and immigration.

How much will the ag committees change?

Both agriculture committees will look different regardless of results, potentially in major ways. "It's going to be one of the most significant reshufflings of the deck, so to speak, potentially at the top end of the ag committees in a very long time," lobbyist Randy Russell, CEO of The Russell Group, told Agri-Pulse.

Senate turnover runs deep:

• Top Democrat Amy Klobuchar is favored to win the Minnesota governorship.
• Colorado's Michael Bennet, after his failed gubernatorial bid, outranks Booker in seniority for ranking member or chairman; Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa expects Bennet to lead the Democrats.
• Retiring members include Republicans Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Tommy Tuberville — running for Alabama governor in a race Cook Political Report rates "Solid Republican" — and Democrats Tina Smith of Minnesota and Dick Durbin of Illinois.

In the House, Chairman Glenn "GT" Thompson, R-Pa., is requesting a waiver to lead the committee a fourth term after hitting the three-term limit. Ranking Democrat Angie Craig of Minnesota leaves Congress Jan. 3 after her Senate bid failed. Vice ranking member Shontel Brown of Ohio, whose district includes Cleveland, is seeking the top Democratic post; she has visited neighboring Midwestern states to meet producers. Departing members include Randy Feenstra of Iowa, Dusty Johnson of South Dakota, John Rose of Tennessee, Dan Newhouse of Washington, Barry Moore — expected to win Alabama's Senate race — and retiring Don Bacon, whose Nebraska seat Charlie Cook sees likely flipping to Democrats.

What makes 2026 a 'unicorn election'?

Analyst Charlie Cook called 2026 the year of the "unicorn election," unlike any of the 11 midterms and 11 presidential contests he has covered. "The dynamics are fundamentally different. The most critical segment is not 'pure independents,'" Cook wrote. The pivotal bloc: reliable Republicans, many "involved in or adjacent to the agricultural economy," who see "high gas prices, tariffs, and trade wars, particularly with longtime allies and neighbors, as particularly irksome."

Which races matter most?

Kansas Senate. The Senate Leadership Fund launched a $10 million rescue effort for Marshall. Inside Elections said his "unenthusiastic campaign has given Hamilton an opening" in a state that last sent a Democrat to the Senate 94 years ago. Marshall in June withdrew support for the Save Our Bacon Act, which would nullify state animal welfare laws like California's Proposition 12, after targeted ads. Debate flashpoints included fuel prices tied to the U.S. war in Iran — Hamilton wants Congress to force an end in January; Marshall said prices will drop when the conflict ends. On Trump's diesel deal with Moscow, Hamilton said: "What you said just now is you're going to sell out our friends in Ukraine — that's not okay. And by the way, our red wheat in Kansas came from Ukraine." Trump visits Kansas Saturday.

Iowa. The open Senate race between House Ag member Ashley Hinson, a Save Our Bacon sponsor, and Democratic state lawmaker Josh Turek, a four-time Paralympian with two golds, is rated "Toss Up" by Cook, "Tilt Republican" by Inside Elections. Iowa is "ground zero for backlash to the effect of Trump's tariffs and the Iran War on the agriculture industry," Cook says. Rep. Zach Nunn, also on House Ag, faces state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott. In the governor's race, MAHA figure Zach Lahn — who upset Feenstra in the primary and targets ag consolidation — faces state auditor Rob Sand in a race Cook rates "Lean Democrat." Iowa leads the nation in corn, ethanol, biodiesel, hogs and eggs.

Ohio and California. Sherrod Brown's race against GOP Sen. Jon Husted is "one of the most expensive races in the country" and a "Toss-up," per Inside Elections, which sees Democrats' second or third best takeover chance. In California's 22nd District, House Ag member David Valadao — his family's dairy grew into a major ag operation — faces school board trustee Randy Villegas in a too-close race; Valadao lost his 2018 midterm bid during Trump's first term.

Committee assignments, farm bill jurisdiction and commodity program oversight all ride on Tuesday's results.