Divided Congress Reshapes Ag and Energy Policy After 2026 Midterms

Democrats will hold at least 255 House seats and 54 Senate seats when the new Congress convenes in January, and the shift is already scrambling who writes farm, food and energy policy.

The scale of the change caught even party insiders off guard. John Lee, chief of staff to Rep. Nikki Budzinski, D-Ill., a House Ag Committee member and vice chair for policy of the New Democrat Coalition, said Democratic officials lacked cell phone numbers for some of last week's winners when they tried to call and congratulate them. The center-left coalition of 114 House Democrats expects its ranks to grow.

"The New Democrat message this cycle has been an unrelenting focus on lowering costs," Lee said during an election-results discussion hosted by the lobbying firm Bracewell. "Affordability is obviously the buzzword."

He credited the economic message for helping centrist Democrats outperform in Republican strongholds. He also dismissed the assumption that divided government means gridlock: "There's a way to walk and chew gum as opposed to just thinking that the next two years are going to be marathon oversight hearings."

Who will chair the House Agriculture Committee?

The two main contenders for the top Democratic post — Jim Costa of California and Shontel Brown of Ohio — both belong to the New Democrat Coalition. Both have signaled they would hold USDA accountable for delivering resources to farmers and rural communities and would scrutinize trade policy and the department's sweeping, heavily criticized reorganization.

Costa, on the committee since 2005, lost the ranking-member race two years ago to Rep. Angie Craig, who is leaving Congress after an unsuccessful Minnesota Senate bid. He calls himself part of a "new guard" and touts California's standing as the top U.S. farm state, with about 400 commodities grown. The California Farm Bureau, National Rural Housing Coalition, Western Growers Association and RNG Coalition have endorsed him. He represents part of the Central Valley.

Costa frames nutrition Title politics as the core farm bill problem. "The three farm reauthorizations that we successfully passed since I've been in Congress have always had nutrition as a primary part of the farm bill," he told Agri-Pulse. "It's the glue that has helped keep the bipartisanship together over decades." He added: "Food is a national security issue."

Partisan feuding over SNAP, the largest federal anti-hunger program, has derailed recent five-year farm bill efforts and threatens to do so again.

Brown, in Congress since 2021 and the committee's current vice ranking member, has traveled to farm regions in Ohio and beyond. If elected, she would be the first Black woman to chair the committee.

"The American people spoke loud and clear: they want lower costs and real accountability, and they gave us a record majority to deliver both," Brown said in a statement. She pledged to build a committee that "reunites urban and rural America," holds USDA accountable and addresses "the affordability crisis that stretches from the farm gate to the dinner plate."

The Ohio Farm Bureau Federation and other state ag groups backed her in a Tuesday letter, writing that she "brings an important perspective on the connections among agricultural production, food access, and the communities our industry serve."

On the Senate side, Chairman John Boozman, R-Ark., is expected to remain top Republican. Sen. Michael Bennet, D-Colo., could chair, though that may depend on Sen.-elect Sherrod Brown, the Ohio Democrat who regained a seat after his defeat two years ago and is a former senior committee member.

Energy policy 'reshuffled,' not reversed

Energy divisions in Congress typically split geographically rather than by party, and lobbyist Scott Segal, co-head of Bracewell's Policy Resolution Group, expects a reshuffle rather than a reversal. "The new language of energy politics isn't about carbon; it's about electricity bills. It's about reliability. It's about who pays for data centers," Segal said.

An early test is the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act, a Trump-backed permitting overhaul that would also stop consumers from footing the bill for grid upgrades demanded by AI data centers. It advanced to a Senate floor vote Monday despite opposition from Sen. Tammy Duckworth, D-Ill., who wants assurances the administration will advance stalled wind and solar projects. A vote could come as soon as Wednesday; the House would still need to pass it.

Joe Brazauskas, a Bracewell partner and former EPA official, noted the bill "was negotiated in a world where the prospects of Democrats controlling the U.S. Senate looked fundamentally different." Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I., urged Democrats to back it Tuesday, but Brazauskas warned that emboldened environmental groups could sink it in the House.

Rep. Jared Huffman, D-Calif., expected to lead the House Natural Resources Committee, called Trump's support for the bill a "coup for his fossil fuel agenda" and a "head fake for Dems gullible enough to believe he will somehow start permitting renewables." On Monday he sent letters to 36 federal agencies and companies — including USDA, John Deere, Mosaic Co., Chevron and Energy Fuels — ordering preservation of records tied to committee investigations.

Leadership races next week will settle much of the uncertainty. Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., said Tuesday he opposes Schumer remaining Senate leader; some House members want an alternative to Hakeem Jeffries. Republicans reelected Sen. John Thune as Senate leader and picked Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio to lead the House GOP — outcomes that will shape the farm bill, biofuels and USDA oversight fights of the next two years.