Nearly 75% of Ag Lenders See Falling Farm Profitability in 2026

Nearly three-quarters of agricultural lenders reported declining farm profitability among their borrowers in 2026, according to an ABA and Farmer Mac survey released Wednesday. Even so, lenders still expected almost 60% of borrowers to turn a profit this year — a figure held up in part by government payments.

The survey, run jointly by the American Bankers Association and Farmer Mac, also asked lenders what worries them most. Liquidity topped the list of producer concerns. For their own institutions, respondents ranked credit quality and agricultural loan deterioration first.

What does the election change for farm policy?

Democratic wins in heavily agricultural states — including Iowa and California — have flipped control of both the House and Senate starting early next year, and some Democrats read the upset of Republican incumbents across rural America as an opening.

"It's a reset button for bipartisanship as it relates to the farm bill and as it relates to agricultural policy," former Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, D-N.D., told Agri-Pulse. "My hope is that we get back to ag policy being bipartisan, and almost nonpartisan."

Former House Ag Chairman Collin Peterson, D-Minn., went further in a Wednesday interview. "You can't run farm policy on just one party. If you do that, you're going to end up going back and forth and farmers are going to get whipsawed," he said. "They need to get back to doing things the way they used to do them, and maybe this election was enough to get their attention to make them do that."

Can a farm bill still pass this year?

A partisan fight over cost shifts in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program threatens to derail a 2026 deal, but Senate Agriculture Committee leaders say they're still pushing.

"I am continuing to work with Chairman [John] Boozman and House Agriculture Committee leaders to get a bipartisan farm bill across the finish line that delivers for our farmers, ranchers, rural communities and families," Sen. Amy Klobuchar, the panel's top Democrat, said in a statement. Klobuchar leaves the Senate early next year to become Minnesota's governor. Her stated goals: resolve the delay before states help pay SNAP benefits, write year-round E15 approval into law, and fund voluntary conservation programs.

"Family farmers contending with numerous challenges to their viability cannot afford another farm bill delay," Boozman, the Arkansas Republican, said in a statement. A spokesperson confirmed Boozman will serve as ranking member on the committee in the new Congress beginning in early January.

Could Belarus replace Canadian potash?

Not realistically, says The Fertilizer Institute. A TFI white paper puts the ceiling on Belarusian potash imports at roughly 1 million to 1.5 million metric tons a year — nowhere near the roughly 12.6 million metric tons the U.S. imported in 2025, most of it from Canada.

President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social in September that he was working on a deal to buy Belarusian potash at a lower cost than Canadian product. The numbers don't support a substitution, TFI argues.

"Belarus's practical capacity to expand exports is approximately 1.5 million metric tons, most of its supply is already committed to existing customers, and the United States has never imported more than 1.5 million metric tons from any single country other than Canada," the paper says. TFI projects Canada stays the top potash source. For context, the U.S. International Trade Commission estimated 2024 domestic potash consumption at 6.4 million metric tons.

What's happening with China tariffs?

More than 20 organizations, led by the Association of Equipment Manufacturers, asked the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative to extend tariff exclusions covering 178 Chinese products — including 14 exemptions for solar manufacturing equipment. The exclusions currently run to Nov. 10, 2026, after Trump's deal with President Xi Jinping pushed the original Nov. 29, 2025, deadline back a year.

The tariffs stem from a 2017 Section 301 investigation that produced four lists taxing $550 billion in goods. "Global production capacity for certain raw materials, components, inputs, and finished goods remains concentrated in China, and even where suppliers exist elsewhere, they often rely on Chinese materials and sub-components," the groups wrote. Signatories include the American Clean Power Association, Consumer Technology Association, National Foreign Trade Council and National Retail Federation.

Union Pacific merger fight deepens

The Surface Transportation Board on Wednesday ordered Union Pacific to publicly release video of CEO Jim Vena's March 17 speech at the Southwest Association of Rail Shippers, denying UP's claim the recording is "proprietary." The board said Vena discussed potential actions against shippers who opposed the planned Norfolk Southern merger, and it has "serious concerns" the remarks may be chilling stakeholder participation. The STB "will not tolerate actual or threatened retaliation" in the proceeding.

Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., expected to chair Senate Finance, signaled the trade fights ahead: "On trade, I will use this committee to reassert congressional authority over our country's trade policy to bring down costs, end Trump's disastrous and corrupt tariffs, reestablish critical trade partnerships, and hold trade cheats accountable."