Farmers should plan for diesel prices to remain high for the foreseeable future, according to Kansas State University agricultural economist Gregg Ibendahl, who laid out the arithmetic linking crude oil markets to what growers pay at the pump.

Speaking on Brownfield Ag News' Managing for Profit segment, Ibendahl quantified the pass-through: for every dollar increase in crude oil prices, diesel prices rise by roughly 42 cents. That ratio gives producers a concrete tool for budgeting, because it ties one of farming's most volatile input costs directly to a widely tracked commodity market.

The relationship matters now because fuel remains a significant line item in crop production budgets. Diesel powers tractors for tillage, planting and harvest operations, runs combines and grain-handling equipment, and fuels the trucks that move grain from farm to elevator. When crude climbs, that 42-cent pass-through works its way through every one of those operations, compressing margins at a time when growers are already managing elevated costs for fertilizer, seed and crop protection products.

Ibendahl's message is direct: the changes in crude oil markets have a direct impact on diesel, and producers should not expect relief soon. His forecast that high diesel prices will stick around for the foreseeable future signals that fuel planning belongs in the same category as interest rate and fertilizer planning — a cost growers must manage rather than wait out.

For operations weighing pre-buying fuel, locking in prices through contracts, or adjusting fieldwork strategies to reduce passes across the field, the crude-to-diesel ratio offers a benchmark for judging when hedging makes sense. A producer who expects crude to move higher can estimate the diesel-side impact before committing to a fuel purchase decision.

The economist's framing also underscores a broader point about input cost structure. Fuel costs do not move in isolation from energy markets more broadly; the same crude oil price that drives diesel also influences other energy-linked farm inputs. That linkage means crude market developments — production decisions by major oil-producing nations, refinery capacity, and global demand shifts — function as leading indicators for a portion of the farm input bill.

Ibendahl, who analyzes farm management and agricultural economics at Kansas State University, delivered the assessment as part of Managing for Profit, a regular feature in which economists and analysts address financial issues facing row-crop and livestock producers.

His bottom line for growers: watch the crude oil market, because the 42-cent-per-dollar pass-through means every move in oil shows up in the diesel bill — and with high prices expected to persist, fuel cost management will remain a live issue for farm budgets into the coming seasons.