Global wheat prices rose 30% year-on-year in the September quarter, yet agrochemical demand stayed weak — a divergence that will squeeze Indian crop protection makers when they report quarterly earnings, Jefferies said in its India Chemicals September 2026 earnings preview.

Soybean and corn prices climbed 22% and 19% respectively over the same period. "Supply chain disruptions in the Black Sea and the Middle East conflict led to wheat/soybean/corn prices rising 30%/22%/19% y/y in the September quarter," the report said.

Higher crop prices normally encourage growers to spend more on crop protection. This quarter, that link broke.

Why did demand stay weak despite stronger prices?

Subdued monsoon conditions in India and heat waves in overseas markets kept growers from translating better prices into input purchases. The clearest signal comes from China, the world's largest crop protection exporter.

"Chinese crop protection export volume fell 15% y/y in QTD2QFY27. The sharp decline after ~2.5 years of rapid growth implies weak global demand," Jefferies noted.

Input prices, meanwhile, moved only modestly as supply chains recovered:

• Glyphosate: up 5% year-on-year
• Urea: down 2%
• Diammonium phosphate (DAP): up 3%

What does this mean for Indian agrochemical companies?

Jefferies expects the weak demand environment to hit September-quarter earnings across the sector.

PI Industries faces the sharpest revision. Jefferies projects an 8% year-on-year revenue decline and a 30% drop in operating profit (EBITDA), driven by weaker exports and subdued domestic demand.

UPL's revenue is projected to fall 5%, with EBITDA down 6%. The brokerage expects double-digit volume declines for UPL in India due to the weak monsoon. Latin American volumes are also likely to fall by double digits amid changes in the company's inventory strategy.

What happens next?

The estimates indicate that despite rising global crop prices and easing supply-chain pressures, agrochemical manufacturers continue to face a challenging demand environment heading into the earnings season.