Cocoa futures posted their sharpest weekly decline since February, falling more than 10% over the September 15–19 trading window. By September 18, the December contract on ICE New York had lost 10.64% and traded near $5,300 per tonne.

The sell-off extends a three-week slide of roughly 20%. Prices stood at $6,700/t at the end of August before easing to $5,300/t. The market had briefly rallied to $6,800/t in September, after which profit-taking intensified and accelerated the retreat.

Improving supply is the main driver of the downturn. Cocoa exports from Côte d'Ivoire, the world's largest producer, were up 18% year on year as of September 13. ICE warehouse stocks climbed to roughly 3.42 million bags, a two-year high, adding physical weight to the futures market's downward move.

Two additional factors are compounding the pressure. Favorable weather across West Africa supports expectations for a stronger crop. At the same time, some manufacturers have reduced the cocoa content in their recipes after the earlier surge in raw material costs cut into processing margins, trimming demand for beans.

The divergence between futures and consumer prices remains stark. Retail chocolate prices in many countries have yet to fall, because manufacturers are still working through long-term cocoa supply contracts signed earlier at significantly higher price levels.

For now, the direction of the market hinges on whether West African growing conditions hold and whether Ivorian export momentum continues at its current pace — variables that will determine whether the 20% three-week correction deepens or stabilizes.