Fertilizer prices are likely to remain elevated through 2028, according to an outlook from CoBank's Knowledge Exchange division, a forecast that keeps input costs at the front of every crop budget conversation for the next several planning cycles.

The report, cited by Rural Radio Network, frames a sustained period of higher nutrient prices rather than a repeat of the sharp spike-and-retreat pattern growers experienced after 2020. For row-crop producers, the practical implication is straightforward: the single largest variable expense in corn and wheat production shows no sign of reverting to pre-2020 levels within the planning horizon.

CoBank, the Denver-based cooperative lender serving rural infrastructure and agribusiness borrowers, periodically publishes input-market analysis through its Knowledge Exchange research unit. Its view on fertilizers carries weight among the cooperatives, retailers and grain handlers that make up its customer base — the same firms that finance fertilizer inventories and extend input credit to growers each season.

An extended plateau in nutrient prices changes margin math at the farm level. When nitrogen, phosphate and potash costs stay high for years rather than months, growers and their agronomists respond with structural adjustments: sharper attention to application timing, greater use of soil testing and variable-rate technology, and renewed interest in nutrient-use-efficiency products. Retailers, in turn, face decisions on how much pre-season inventory to carry when replacement costs refuse to fall.

The elevated-price environment also keeps policy pressure alive. Fertilizer costs have featured in farm bill debates and in congressional inquiries into fertilizer market concentration, with lawmakers probing whether limited domestic production capacity and global supply disruptions leave U.S. growers exposed. A forecast that stretches high prices out to 2028 gives both producer groups and input makers a longer planning window — and a longer argument — around domestic manufacturing incentives and trade policy for nutrient imports.

Global supply dynamics sit behind the outlook. Nitrogen prices track natural gas costs in producing regions, phosphate markets remain tight on export restrictions from key suppliers, and potash supply has yet to fully normalize after the disruption that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Any CoBank projection through 2028 rests on those structural conditions holding — a caveat worth noting, since a demand collapse, new capacity coming online, or a gas price slide could pull the forecast lower.

For lenders and cooperative balance sheets, the forecast matters beyond the field. Elevated fertilizer prices inflate working-capital needs across the system: growers borrow more for inputs, retailers carry costlier inventories, and manufacturers weigh capacity investments against a price outlook that now looks durable rather than transitory. CoBank's own lending relationships sit squarely across that chain, from farm gates to fertilizer storage and distribution infrastructure.

Growers weighing 2025 input purchases will read the outlook as a signal to lock in supply where basis and storage allow, and to treat any seasonal price dips as buying opportunities rather than the start of a downtrend. Agronomists and crop advisers, meanwhile, gain a planning assumption: nutrient recommendations built on high-price efficiency — right source, right rate, right time, right place — stay economically justified through the decade's second half.

CoBank's next quarterly Knowledge Exchange updates will show whether the 2028 forecast holds as new production capacity and trade flows develop.