Canola tariff suspension extends to 2028 as Doer urges farmer voice

China’s suspension of a 100% retaliatory tariff on Canadian canola meal will run through the end of 2028, extending favorable market access for canola meal, peas and several seafood products.

Canada and China announced the extension one day before Gary Doer spoke at the EMILI Agriculture Enlightened conference in Winnipeg. The Canola Council of Canada welcomed the certainty for producers planning 2027 crops.

Doer, the former Manitoba premier and former Canadian ambassador to the United States, used the Nov. 5 appearance to assess Canada’s trade position. The 100% figure defines the retaliatory tariff rate; it does not quantify crop prices, basis or farm margins.

Trade barriers can raise equipment costs, disrupt crop exports and reduce farm profitability before planting, even when they do not target seed directly. Growers then change purchases and demand for new varieties.

Seed companies and breeders need predictable trade because their investment horizon extends beyond one election cycle.

What could the U.S. election change?

Doer spoke two days after the U.S. midterm elections and said the Democrats’ victories in the House and Senate could create an opening for Canada’s agricultural industry to regain ground. His claim remained a political forecast, not a new trade rule.

“On agriculture, it’s a really important topic in every one of the swing states,” Doer said. Many agricultural states also have significant economic relationships with Canada, giving farm policy more weight in border trade.

He said tariff announcements sometimes preceded adequate economic analysis. “One of the things that surprised me with tariffs, particularly in the last period of time, was that there didn’t seem to be, beyond the kind of bravado about them, there didn’t seem to be a due diligence going into tariffs,” he said.

Doer cited Bombardier operations in Wichita, Kansas, as an example of tariff decisions affecting American workers. Tariffs became an election issue in agricultural and manufacturing states when voters connected trade disruptions with rising costs. Doer expected greater sensitivity and saw an opening for bipartisan scrutiny.

The forecast does not mean unrestricted trade returns immediately. President Donald Trump remains in office, and his administration retains substantial authority over trade policy. Doer’s narrower argument was that the political calculation around tariffs may change.

The election may increase scrutiny of tariffs, but it does not remove the administration’s trade authority.

How should Canada manage China?

Doer urged Canada to preserve its agricultural relationship with China while recognizing the political sensitivities involved. He said Canada should keep channels of communication and cooperation open rather than allow disagreements to interrupt established trade.

He also described the Canada-U.S. agricultural relationship as cooperative and beneficial to the economy and producers. Those ties could gain importance as American lawmakers reassess policies affecting businesses, workers and consumers on both sides of the border.

Canada should not appear to rely exclusively on China while the United States viewed Beijing as a greater concern than Canada did, Doer said. Drawing on his Washington experience, he recalled candidates attacking opponents over their perceived China relationships.

Canadian premiers need to understand those pressures when dealing with American governors, who, Doer said, sometimes make more economic decisions than the Senate and House.

Plant-breeding programs and seed production require long-term investment, yet supported crops’ profitability can change quickly when an international market closes.

Canola shows the exposure. Canadian research and breeding developed it into one of the country’s most important agricultural exports, but its fortunes remain tied to trade decisions made outside Canada. Market access now shapes investment as much as innovation.

Canada needs to keep China communication open without making the relationship look like a substitute for the U.S. market.

What does CUSMA offer negotiators?

Doer urged Canadian officials in upcoming Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, or CUSMA, talks to remember that Donald Trump negotiated the pact during his first presidency and called it the best trade agreement in world history. He suggested they remind Americans of that endorsement rather than frame every discussion as confrontation.

He argued Trump’s enthusiasm for political messaging could help negotiators who understand it. “The key advice when you’re negotiating with Donald Trump is figure out what bumper sticker you can give him without costing you any or much,” Doer said.

His practical rule was to accept any offer to remove a tariff. Longstanding ties in crop production, seed development and agricultural technology give both countries reason to remove barriers.

For Canada, tariff removal offers a clearer route to farm margins than political confrontation.

Why farmers need a seat in Ottawa?

Asked why agriculture often receives less attention than defence, advanced manufacturing and other national priorities, Doer called it a difficult discussion in Ottawa. His prescription went beyond industry organizations, policy specialists and government relations professionals: decision-makers should hear directly from the people producing Canada’s food.

“I think it’s better to take agricultural producers with you to Ottawa to talk to the various decision makers,” Doer said. “You should come there with people that are on the ground doing the work, bringing in the crops, helping all of us get fed.”

During his years in government, Doer included farmers in policy discussions. He said he never went to Ottawa for a farm meeting without one. His humorous version favored a farmer over a mathematician.

For the 2027 crop year and longer seed investment cycles, the test will be whether farmers gain a direct voice in Ottawa and whether Canada turns trade uncertainty into durable market access.