Brazil curtailed fertilizer imports sharply in September just as farmers entered the active soybean planting window. Average daily arrivals totaled 137.3 thousand tons over the first 13 business days of the month, down 29.9% from September 2025.

Total arrivals for the month to date stand at 1.78 million tons. The comparison with the prior two years is stark: Brazil imported 4.33 million tons in September 2025 and a record 4.64 million tons in September 2024.

The pullback extends a year-long trend. In January-August, Brazil imported 25.37 million tons of fertilizers, the lowest volume for the period since 2023. Over the same eight months, the average import price climbed to $394.47/t — the highest January-August level since 2022. The combination of falling volumes and rising unit costs points to growers and distributors rationing purchases rather than building stocks ahead of the safrinha-input cycle.

Purchases of key products are contracting across the board. Potash imports have slipped below last year's level, and urea imports totaled 2.82 million tons in January-August. On the phosphate side, high sulfur prices have added further cost pressure and forced some domestic production capacity for MAP, SSP and TSP offline, tightening local supply of finished phosphate fertilizers.

Full-year 2026 imports are forecast at 40–41 million tons, more than 10% below the record 45.5 million tons Brazil imported in 2025. The forecast cuts against the direction of the country's crop base: planted area continues to expand even as fertilizer inflows shrink. According to the report, high prices are pushing farmers to be more selective in application — a margin defense that risks showing up in yield performance if it persists into the main soybean and corn cycles.

Importers and suppliers now face a market in which Brazilian demand, the world's largest fertilizer import market, is contracting in tonnage terms even as unit values rise. Whether the 40–41 million ton forecast holds will depend on how soybean planting progresses and whether farmers return to the market once application decisions for the 2026/27 crop are finalized.