US pork export value drops 13.5% in September, fifth monthly decline

US pork export value fell 13.5% year-over-year in September to $591.3 million, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline, according to USDA data compiled by the US Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Volume totaled 216,353 metric tons, down 7.5% from a year earlier.

The gap between the volume decline and the steeper value drop points to falling unit values, and USMEF attributes much of the shortfall to a sharp contraction in variety meat shipments — historically a high-value category for US exporters.

Where did the losses come from?

September told a split story. Shipments grew year-over-year to Japan, Canada and Taiwan, and exports set records in several Western Hemisphere markets:

• Record export pace for January-September to Central America, Colombia and the Dominican Republic
• Record-large September shipments to Cuba
• Year-over-year gains to Japan, Canada and Taiwan

Those bright spots were offset by lower shipments to Mexico, China, Oceania and the ASEAN region. Mexico matters twice over here: it is a top-volume destination for US pork, and it is also producing more of its own.

What is pressuring prices?

USMEF president and CEO Dan Halstrom named three forces behind the weak numbers.

"Global hog prices have come under intense pressure in recent months, and export value is feeling the impact of this situation," Halstrom said. "Domestic production has rebounded in various countries, including Mexico, and there is still a lingering impact from Mexico's suspension of US pork variety meat exports earlier this year."

That suspension, since resolved, still weighs on trade flows.

"While that impasse is now resolved, it takes time for the supply chain to recover," Halstrom said. "US pork also still faces retaliatory tariffs in China, where overproduction is pressuring the market."

He added a third pressure: "In other regions, low-priced product from Brazil and Spain has reduced the competitiveness of US pork." For US processors, that means competing against cheaper European and South American supply at the same time Chinese demand is constrained.

Is the annual total still holding?

Barely. January-September exports reached 2.17 million metric tons, up 0.3% from last year's pace — but export value slipped 2% to $6.1 billion. Volume growth of a fraction of a percent alongside a 2% value decline confirms that the problem is price, not tonnage, in most markets.

The caveat is arithmetic: five straight monthly declines have not yet erased the annual lead, but they are closing it. If October and November repeat September's 13.5% value drop, the full-year figure will land below 2023 levels despite the record runs to Central America, Colombia, the Dominican Republic and Cuba.

What USMEF's numbers do not show is a timeline for recovery. Halstrom's own framing — supply chains needing time, Chinese overproduction unresolved, Brazilian and Spanish product undercutting US prices — describes conditions that no single trade resolution will reverse quickly. The next USDA-USMEF release, covering October, will show whether Mexico's variety meat trade is rebuilding fast enough to offset the drag from Asia.