U.S. Tractor Sales Fall 16.4% in September; Combines Down 10.9%

U.S. farm tractor sales fell 16.4% in September 2026 compared with September 2025, and self-propelled combine sales dropped 10.9%, according to figures the Association of Equipment Manufacturers released Oct. 12 from its Milwaukee headquarters.

The declines were deeper north of the border. Canadian tractor sales fell 15.1% year over year, while Canadian combine sales collapsed 37.6% — a gap large enough to raise questions about whether the U.S. numbers understate the broader downturn in equipment demand.

What did each tractor class sell?

The monthly unit counts, reported by horsepower class, show weakness at every level of the market:

• Under 40 hp: 8,952 units, down from 10,578 in September 2025 — a 15.4% decline.
• 40 to 100 hp: 4,443 units, down from 5,466.
• Above 100 hp: 1,396 units, down from 1,643.
• Four-wheel-drive tractors: 233 units, down from 292.

Small tractors, often bought by hobby farmers and lifestyle buyers, are holding up only marginally better than the high-horsepower machines that large grain and row-crop operations purchase. When demand weakens across every class at once, the driver is usually the farm economy itself rather than a shift in one customer segment.

How deep is the year-to-date slide?

The cumulative numbers point the same direction. Two-wheel-drive tractor sales through September totaled 133,877 units, down 12.5% from 152,976 a year earlier. Four-wheel-drive sales, the segment most exposed to large-operator capital spending, totaled 1,448 units year to date — a 23.4% decline from 1,891 units.

Combine sales followed. September's 369 units compare with 413 a year ago, and the year-to-date total of 2,432 units is down 9.4% from 2,683.

The report also carries inventory figures worth watching: beginning inventory for all classes of two- and four-wheel-drive tractors stood at 95,533 units in September, against 911 units for combines. That tractor inventory represents roughly eight months of supply at the current sales pace — a stock overhang dealers and manufacturers will have to work through before production schedules recover.

What does AEM expect next?

Curt Blades, AEM senior vice president, framed the numbers as a snapshot of a strained market with recovery in sight.

"September's sales underscore the difficulty in the agriculture market today," Blades said. "We approach this harvest season with optimism for increased certainty and recovery of the farm economy."

The second half of that statement is a forecast, not a result. Nothing in the monthly data itself shows a turn: every class posted a year-over-year decline, and the four-wheel-drive segment is down nearly a quarter for the year. A recovery claim built on "increased certainty" would need clearer signals on commodity prices, interest rates and farm income before the sales curve bends.

Takeaway: dealers, manufacturers and lenders should read September as confirmation of a broad, class-wide demand slump — with inventory levels that will shape pricing and production well into next year.

AEM's next monthly report will show whether harvest-season cash flow moved any needle.