U.S. farm exports rose 7.7%, but wheat and pulses fell

By Rebecca Stone

U.S. agricultural exports totaled $135.7 billion from January through September, up 7.7% from a year earlier and the largest nine-month total since 2022. September exports reached a record $15.2 billion, 13% above the previous September, according to USDA Foreign Agricultural Service trade figures.

The figures measure shipment values, not farm-level prices or margins. They do not show input costs, freight charges or basis, the local cash-price spread against a futures benchmark, so growers cannot treat the headline gain as a direct measure of profitability.

Which markets are driving the increase?

USDA said currency exchange rates, global competition, crop yields, and economic and population growth influence export performance. Actual gains were concentrated by destination:

• Exports to China rose 64%.
• Shipments to the European Union increased 13%.
• Exports to Canada rose 2%, despite well-publicized trade tensions.
• Sales to Mexico increased 1.1%; Mexico remains the No. 1 foreign market for U.S. farm goods.
• Exports to Japan rose 3%.
• Shipments to the 11-country Association of Southeast Asian Nations increased 14%.

China has resumed buying U.S. soybeans, accounting for much of the overall increase. Soybean exports to China rose 145%, while soybean exports to all destinations increased 27%.

The product mix was similarly uneven:

• Corn exports rose 7%, dairy exports increased 14%, and ethanol exports climbed 22%.
• Fresh fruit exports rose 7%.
• Wheat exports fell 16%, while pulse exports dropped 37%.

For soybean and corn growers, stronger foreign demand can improve elevator bids and basis. The wheat and pulse declines point in the opposite direction for producers exposed to those markets. Dairy, ethanol and fresh fruit also gained, but export values alone cannot establish whether any sector’s margins widened. A grower whose input costs increased faster than the commodity price could earn less despite stronger sales.

Why are wheat and pulses losing ground?

USDA’s Economic Research Service said wheat exports lagged throughout the year. In an October report, the agency cited drought damage to the hard red winter crop and U.S. wheat’s lack of competitiveness against large crops from Canada, Australia and Argentina.

Farmers also planted fewer acres of lentils, chickpeas, dry beans and dry peas this year than last. That acreage reduction confirms a smaller planted area, although it does not establish final harvested production. Year-to-date pulse exports to Mexico fell 61%, intensifying the pressure on a market that otherwise remained the largest destination for U.S. farm goods.

These are export and planting reports, not harvested results. The source provides no final yield or production figures, so the acreage changes should not be presented as confirmed supply shortages.

What does the beef import increase mean?

The United States continues to import large volumes of beef. By value, beef imports rose 31%; by physical volume, they increased 17%. The larger gain in value is consistent with higher average import values, although USDA did not provide an explicit unit-price figure.

President Trump lowered tariffs, or import taxes, on beef for three months to reduce consumer beef prices. That period expires at the end of November. For cattle producers, the policy adds import competition at the margin. Its effect on farm-level margins will depend on how cattle prices, feed and other operating costs move before the tariff period ends.

How large is the farm trade deficit?

The United States imported $156.5 billion in agricultural goods through September and posted a year-to-date trade deficit of $20.7 billion. USDA reported that the deficit was smaller than last year and smaller than in 2024. The published comparison figures were $37.9 billion for 2025 and $31.2 million for 2024.

That 2024 figure carries an apparent unit inconsistency: $31.2 million does not align with the scale of the other nine-month deficit totals. The underlying USDA release should be checked before treating it as a comparable deficit. A narrower deficit also does not necessarily signal stronger export prices because the figures cover trade values rather than net returns to producers.

USDA is scheduled to release October farm trade data on Dec. 8. That report will show whether September’s record and China’s soybean rebound carried into a broader export gain or remained concentrated in a few commodities and destinations.