The Strait of Hormuz has remained closed, and fertilizer markets are still absorbing the consequences. That question — how the trade is coping — is the subject of a new analysis from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

The strait matters to agriculture far beyond the oil trade. A large share of the world's fertilizer and fertilizer raw materials moves through the Persian Gulf, and a sustained closure threatens supply routes for ammonia, urea and potash flows that anchor input costs for growers worldwide.

What does the closure change for growers?

The practical question for farmers is input cost. When Gulf shipping lanes shut, freight rates rise, insurance premiums climb and suppliers reroute cargoes at longer distances. Those costs arrive at the farm gate as higher nitrogen prices, tighter availability and wider regional basis between surplus and deficit markets.

For import-dependent regions, the pressure is sharper. Buyers who rely on Gulf-origin product must compete for alternative cargoes from other exporters, and the price premium for non-Gulf supply typically widens quickly after any disruption is confirmed.

Condition report, not harvest result

IFPRI's assessment is an analysis of market adjustment, not a tally of final trade outcomes. Readers should treat statements about diverted cargoes, rerouted shipments and price responses as early readings. Firm figures on traded volumes, freight costs and delivered prices will depend on reporting windows and customs data that lag real-time conditions.

That distinction matters for anyone using the analysis to budget. A market that appears tight in weekly price assessments can look different once full-month import statistics land.

Why the chokepoint matters

Hormuz sits at the outlet of the Persian Gulf. Fertilizer producers in the region ship product through it to Asian and African buyers in particular. A prolonged closure forces those producers and their customers to find workarounds — alternative ports, longer sea routes or overland logistics — each of which adds cost and time.

The IFPRI analysis follows a series of disruptions that have hit fertilizer supply chains in recent years, from the 2021–22 price spike driven by European gas costs to sanctions-related rerouting of trade. Each episode left a mark on planting decisions and margins, especially for smallholders in import-dependent countries.

What comes next depends on how long the closure holds and whether alternative logistics can scale. IFPRI's assessment signals that markets are adjusting, but the adjustment carries a cost that growers, cooperatives and input buyers will carry into the coming procurement season.