Fertilizer prices are projected to remain elevated through 2028, per an outlook reported by Ag Information Network of the West, an agricultural broadcasting service covering western U.S. farming regions.

The headline-level projection — sustained higher fertilizer tabs through the 2028 crop year — lands as planning-season context for corn, wheat, soybean and specialty crop operations still working through elevated input costs that have compressed margins in recent seasons.

What the projection covers

The Ag Information Network of the West item, headlined "Fertilizer Prices Expected To Stay Elevated Through 2028," does not detail per-ton price targets or methodology in the available reporting. It frames the elevated-cost period as multi-year rather than transitional, which is the operational signal growers and cooperatives need for capital and budgeting decisions.

A through-2028 timeline indicates the cost run will not normalize within two or three application seasons. For farm managers, that recasts fertilizer expense as a structural input cost rather than a temporary spike to be waited out.

Who the projection hits hardest

• Row-crop growers planting corn and wheat, where nitrogen applications represent a single largest variable input line per acre
• Cooperatives and ag retailers locking in fall anhydrous ammonia and spring UAN positions two seasons out
• Crop-input finance operations structuring prepay terms for the 2025 through 2028 crop years
• Specialty crop operations in the Pacific Northwest and Mountain West — Ag Information Network of the West's core coverage area — where nitrogen, phosphate and potash blends drive orchard, vegetable and small-grain production budgets
• Dairy, beef and poultry operations whose feed cost basis rises with fertilizer-driven corn and soybean meal prices

What the 2028 horizon signals

Multi-year elevated-price forecasts from market analysts typically track global natural gas benchmarks (the principal feedstock for nitrogen fertilizers), phosphate and potash export flows from major producing nations, and U.S. planted acreage expectations. The Ag Information Network of the West headline implies that none of those variables are expected to ease enough through 2028 to pull retail fertilizer prices back toward 2018–2020 baselines.

Where to verify the outlook

Growers, crop consultants and cooperative procurement officers should cross-reference the projection against multiple data streams before locking budgets:

• Quarterly earnings from CF Industries, Nutrien, Yara and Mosaic for capacity, pricing and demand commentary
• USDA's annual cost-of-production estimates, updated each fall, for corn, wheat, cotton and soybeans
• StoneX, CRU and Argus fertilizer benchmark publications for contract and spot pricing by region
• DTN and Progressive Farmer retail price surveys for the spring and fall application windows

Any single source's multi-year price outlook should be stress-tested against at least two of these references before being built into a multi-year operating loan, prepay program or capital-purchase plan.

What to watch next

The first concrete test of the through-2028 trajectory will arrive with fall 2024 and spring 2025 retail fertilizer pricing data, the next round of CF Industries and Nutrien earnings calls, and any USDA or state-level cost-of-production revisions. If global nitrogen capacity additions come online on schedule and natural gas benchmarks ease, the elevated-price forecast could prove conservative; if export quotas tighten or production disruptions persist, the 2028 figure could understate the run.

For now, the Ag Information Network of the West outlook gives growers and their lenders a planning anchor: assume elevated fertilizer expense lines through at least the 2028 crop year, and adjust seed, chemical and cash-rent decisions accordingly.