The 2018 farm bill expired Sept. 30, 2026, after Congress extended it three times, leaving key commodity and conservation provisions lapsed and forcing farm groups to bank on a lame-duck deal before year's end.

Lawmakers say a new agreement is at least a month away. Several important titles were addressed in recent omnibus legislation, but the provisions that slipped through now require renewal, and the chairs of the House and Senate Agriculture Committees say they want a permanent farm bill — not another extension — passed before the calendar turns.

"We're working with our House counterparts now and also working with the Democrats both in the House and the Senate and trying to get together and have a final bill that we can pass as soon as we get back once the election's over," says Sen. John Boozman, R-Ark., chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee.

His House counterpart, Rep. G.T. Thompson, R-Pa., says staff from both chambers have been communicating regularly and that most of the work is already staged.

"I think we're in a position to pre-conference 90% of the farm bill," Thompson says. "There's not an excuse not to get it done by the end of the year."

Controversial items ride along

Boozman says the conference committee will also work out provisions including a fix for California's Proposition 12, the state animal-housing law that reshaped hog-market economics nationwide, and mandatory country-of-origin labeling (M-COOL).

"A lot of people would like to see that passed. There's some opposition. It's a little bit controversial. On the other hand, I think the preponderance right now is probably with it rather than against," Boozman says.

Another candidate for inclusion is nationwide, year-round E15 sales — a demand-side lever for corn growers and ethanol producers that has support in both chambers.

"We're still hopeful that there's a chance to get that done. And while the House-passed farm bill did not have E15 provisions in it, the House did pass a standalone E15 bill," says Geoff Cooper, president and CEO of the Renewable Fuels Association.

Boozman says lawmakers "will marry those up and figure out a path forward for E15."

Midterms could decide the outcome

If the traditional conference process fails, the odds of passage in the 120th Congress will hinge on the November midterm results.

"Does the House flip? Does that look likely? Is it by a big margin? At some point is it north of 230 seats? I don't know. I think that's a different calculation," says DaNita Murray, executive director of South Dakota Corn. "And the U.S. Senate, does it stay in the hands of Republicans or does that flip as well?"

Murray is not ruling out a deal regardless of the electoral math.

"Time will tell," she says. "Lame ducks are crazy, as you know."

For growers, the stakes in the lapsed titles are direct: reference prices, crop insurance and conservation program funding all sit inside the expired statute, and another delay would push those decisions into a new Congress with uncertain committee leadership.