Blueberry Output Up 11.2% in 2025, With 1 Million More Tons Looming

Worldwide blueberry production reached 2.33 million tons in 2025, up 11.2% from a year earlier, and the industry expects to add another 1 million tons by 2030 or shortly after. Cort Brazelton, co-owner and board member of Fall Creek, presented that outlook at Fruit Attraction 2026 in Madrid, citing the 2026 International Blueberry Organization report.

The scale of new supply is the story. The scale of new margin is the problem. Brazelton said "increased production alone will not guarantee profitability," and that improved genetics, higher yields and more efficient harvesting grow more important as the market absorbs additional fruit.

How much supply is the industry adding?

The 2026 International Blueberry Organization report put worldwide blueberry production at 2.33 million tons in 2025, an 11.2% increase over the previous year. On top of that, Brazelton described the potential for another 1 million tons by 2030 or shortly after, a pace that highlights how quickly the industry is expanding and how sharply competition for buyers will tighten.

• Worldwide production in 2025: 2.33 million tons, up 11.2% from the previous year.
• Potential addition: 1 million tons by 2030 or shortly after.
• Where recent growth came from: young orchards reaching maturity, not yield gains.

Brazelton said "much of the recent production growth is coming from young orchards reaching maturity rather than significant improvements in yields." That distinction matters for anyone modeling margins. Bringing new producing acres online lifts total output, but long-term competitiveness depends on how efficiently growers produce and move fruit to market.

The industry's next phase will be judged on output per acre and cost per ton, not acreage alone.

Why more fruit pressures returns

Growing supply raises the bar for every grower selling into a shared global market. As more fruit enters the market, buyers gain leverage over price, and growers carry labor, operating and plant-establishment costs on their own books at the same time.

Brazelton's framing is straightforward: volume expansion on its own does not assure profitability, so returns will hinge on productivity and on the cost of moving fruit from orchard to buyer.

Growers cannot answer a million-ton supply increase with volume alone; they have to answer it with yield and cost control.

Where the levers sit

Brazelton identified four areas that could strengthen growers' position as global supplies increase:

• Genetics — developing more productive varieties suited to different growing conditions and market demands.
• Yield — pulling more fruit from existing acreage rather than adding acres.
• Harvest efficiency — managing labor and operating costs as more tons move through the chain.
• Logistics — maintaining fruit quality and delivering product to buyers efficiently, both of which influence returns as production expands and competition increases.

Genetics and harvest efficiency work on opposite sides of the same margin line: one sets what an acre can produce, the other sets what it costs to pick, pack and deliver. Logistics sits between them, and a quality-damaged load in a lengthening supply chain is revenue that never reaches a grower.

Input decisions and supply-chain performance will decide profitability more than planted acreage will.

What the numbers can and cannot tell you

The two headline figures are not the same kind of number. The 2.33 million tons is a reported production result for a completed year; the additional 1 million tons is a projection to 2030 or shortly after.

The material Brazelton presented carries no breakdown by region, acreage, yield per acre, or harvested versus forecast volume, so the million-ton figure should be read as an industry estimate rather than a harvest result. That distinction matters for anyone weighing nursery orders, harvest machinery purchases or input contracts against expected prices.

The gap between a measured year and a projected one is where the economics live, and no per-ton margin figure accompanies either number.

The test through 2030

The outlook Brazelton described is an industry growing faster than its own efficiency curve. New orchards now coming into bearing will deliver tons for years to come, and the returns on those tons will be set by genetics, harvest labor and logistics performance rather than by the acreage planted this season.

Through 2030, the test for blueberry growers is whether gains in genetics, yield and logistics can outrun the million tons of new supply heading into the market.