Africa now absorbs roughly 40% of South Africa's agricultural exports, according to agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo, as the country's farm shipments continue to expand at pace.

Writing in his regular column for News24, Sihlobo — chief economist at Agbiz, the Agricultural Business Chamber — points to the African continent's dominance as a destination for South African produce. The figure anchors a broader surge in the country's farm export performance, which has grown into a structural strength of the sector rather than a one-season anomaly.

Why does the 40% share matter?

The continental market's share of South African agricultural exports dwarfs that of any single distant trading partner in volume terms. African buyers take a heavy flow of South African maize, wheat flour, poultry, sugar, fruit juices and processed foods, much of it moving overland through the Southern African Development Community (SADC) corridor.

That trade pattern carries direct margin implications for growers and agribusinesses. Overland African routes typically involve shorter lead times and lower freight costs than seaborne shipments to Europe or Asia, which supports basis for inland producers in provinces such as the Free State, North West and Mpumalanga. At the same time, payment risk, border delays and currency volatility on African routes remain costs that exporters must price into contracts.

What is driving the surge?

Sihlobo's analysis situates the export surge within several years of strong output growth in South African agriculture. Key drivers include:

• Expanded plantings and strong harvests in export-oriented crops, including citrus, table grapes, apples and pears
• Investment in irrigation infrastructure and cold-chain capacity in production regions such as the Western Cape, Limpopo and the Eastern Cape
• Duty-free access to African markets under African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) frameworks and SADC arrangements
• Diversification by exporters away from traditional European markets toward the rest of the continent, the Middle East and Asia

The sector's export performance has outpaced the growth of the wider economy in recent seasons, and agriculture has repeatedly recorded trade surpluses even in years when other sectors ran deficits.

Who relies on this trade?

The export machine spans large listed agribusinesses, grower cooperatives and thousands of commercial farmers. Citrus growers' associations, deciduous fruit bodies and grain traders all depend on the continent's demand to clear surplus volumes that the domestic market cannot absorb. For maize in particular, surplus-producing provinces depend on African buyers — Zimbabwe, Botswana, Mozambique and wider Sub-Saharan markets — to support prices in seasons of heavy supply.

Input makers and handlers also share the exposure: fertilizer and fuel costs, port efficiency at Durban and Cape Town, and rail performance on the corridor to inland African markets all feed directly into farm-gate margins.

What are the risks ahead?

Sihlobo's assessment is not without caution. The same column tradition in which he writes has flagged port congestion, rail constraints, animal-disease outbreaks and uneven municipal services as persistent threats to export logistics. Geopolitical shocks and exchange-rate swings can also reprice South African produce in African currency markets quickly.

The trajectory he outlines, however, is clear: South African farm exports are growing, and the African continent is the sector's largest single destination at about 40% of shipments — a share exporters and policymakers will need to protect through logistics investment and smoother regional trade rules in the seasons ahead.